← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Pickardstown Handicap Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Dontcavein
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Dontcavein (SR:87, 4/1) is the standout market mover in this field, steaming in 43% from its opening price — a dramatic move that demands respect in a race where most rivals are drifting. It carries a competitive 10-8 (lightest weight among the main contenders), giving it a real pounds edge over Leave In Secret (11-12) and Farrokh (11-10). At age 6 it is the most progressive runner in the field, and trainer Ciaran Murphy and jockey Kevin Healy combine for a workable strike rate. The DistFit:? and GoingFit:? flags are a mild concern, but the absence of negative distance/going form means this is an unknown rather than a proven weakness, and the weight advantage compensates. Each-way alternative: Lady Doyanne. Main danger: Lady Doyanne — Lady Doyanne (SR:101, the highest in the field, 10/3) has consistent placing form at this level (-43223), handles the going (GoingFit:+), has course form (W0P1 at Tramore), and Henry de Bromhead's 16% strike rate gives her a live each-way chance despite the 21% drift.
Full result
Winner: Farrokh (FR) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Farrokh Fox #3 7/2
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2
Lady Doyanne Fox #2 3/1
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3
Sayitfirst 11/1
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4
Dontcavein Fox #1 5/2
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5
Itsalonglongroad 14/1
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6
Leave In Secret 10/3
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—
Marelly 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Dontcavein 4/1 🏁 4TH
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2
Lady Doyanne 10/3 🥈 2ND
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3
Farrokh 10/3 SP 3/1 🏆 WON