← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Archers Bay
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Archers Bay (SR 110, 7/2) is the clear SR leader in this field and the market has aggressively backed that view — shortening 29% to 7/2 with Ryan Moore, a 24%-strike-rate jockey who commands significant confidence. Crucially, the horse carries 9-9 and has proven course form (W1P3 at Newmarket) plus confirmed distance and going fitness (DistFit:+ GoingFit:+), meaning all three environmental factors align. The class drop (↓1) is a further positive even though the mark has risen 8lb — the SR advantage over the next-best runner (Turty Tree at 105, Decade of Time at 103) is meaningful enough at 5-7 points to absorb that penalty. The only caution is the +8 mark move, but at Class 2 with the best SR in the field and elite course-and-distance credentials, Archers Bay is the standout selection. Each-way alternative: Turty Tree. Main danger: Turty Tree — Turty Tree (SR 105, 5/1) arrives on the back of a last-time-out win (form 341261), carries a handy 9-2, is ridden by Oisin Murphy (22% career strike rate), has shortened 21% in the market, and the DistFit:+ confirms genuine stamina for 1m4f — if the +3 mark rise is manageable, Balding's yard's #1 runner is the most credible threat.
Full result
Winner: Study Of Words (IRE) at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Study of Words 13/2
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2
Lord d'Or 10/1
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3
Decade of Time Fox #3 7/1
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4
Spyce 13/2
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5
Liberate 11/1
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6
Turty Tree Fox #2 5/1
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7
Into The Light 18/1
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8
Archers Bay Fox #1 7/2
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9
Kahin 14/1
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10
Devil's Peak Fox #4 15/2
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—
High Storm 16/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Archers Bay 7/2 8TH
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2
Turty Tree 5/1 6TH
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3
Decade of Time 7/1 🥉 3RD
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4
Devil's Peak 15/2 10TH