← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Got A Dream
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/2 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Got A Dream (SR:113, 13/2, 11-11) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a meaningful margin and carries a favourable weight relative to that ability advantage. The form string /1161- shows a sequence of wins before the last run, and crucially the horse holds Course:W1P1 at Chepstow — proven course form on a specialist track is a genuine edge in an 18-runner handicap. Trainer Nicky Martin runs at a strong 23% strike rate from 77 runners, suggesting a well-managed yard that picks spots. The MarkMv:+2 is modest and not a significant burden, and ClassMv:= means no step up in class to worry about. The absence of GoingFit data (GoingFit:?) is the key risk, but the course form on what is a similar autumn Welsh track going profile partially mitigates this. Each-way alternative: Into The Park. Main danger: Into The Park — Into The Park (SR:108, 8/1) has steamed in dramatically — Mkt:in34% is by far the most aggressive market move in the field — and the MarkMv:-5 drop in mark gives it a genuine handicap edge, even though GoingFit:- is a concern the market appears to be dismissing.
Full result
Winner: Tzarmix (FR) at SP 22/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Tzarmix 20/1
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2
Torrent 17/2
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3
Got A Dream Fox #1 7/1
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4
Reallyntruthfully Fox #4 6/1
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5
Muskerry Rock 22/1
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6
Magical King Fox #3 6/1
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7
Golden Maverick 25/1
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8
Jaytee 66/1
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9
Jager Time 16/1
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10
Freshers Week 12/1
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11
Faded Fantasy 22/1
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12
Jupiter Allen 14/1
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Gold For Alec 11/1
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Into The Park Fox #2 13/2
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Punxsutawney Phil 28/1
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Balboa 10/1
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Queens Venture -
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Amatchmadeinheaven 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Got A Dream 13/2 🥉 3RD
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2
Into The Park 8/1
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3
Magical King 11/2 6TH
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4
Reallyntruthfully 10/1 🏁 4TH