← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Cast Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Tiddesley Wood
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Tiddesley Wood (SR:133, 2/1) is the highest-rated runner in a small 4-horse field and carries top-weight of 11-10 that reflects genuine ability advantage — 3lb clear of Passing Diamond on SR and 14lb clear of Passengerontheship. Brian Hughes (19% strike rate, 973 career rides) is a formidable booking, and the 4-star AI probability rating underlines the machine-derived confidence. While DistFit and GoingFit are both unknown, the form string 31341- shows consistent competitiveness at this level, and the dash (last run) rather than a poor finish digit does not signal a soundness alarm. Passing Diamond's 11% drift and MarkMv:+9 running off a higher mark after a class rise tempers its claims, leaving Tiddesley Wood as the most credible selection. Each-way alternative: Passing Diamond. Main danger: Passing Diamond — Passing Diamond (SR:129, 13/8) has Course:W2P3 at Hexham, proven DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+, and a recent form string of -11311 that shows a horse in peak form — the drift to 13/8 from a presumably tighter opening price is the only real concern, and the class rise plus higher mark may be fully absorbed by that course and distance expertise.
Full result
Winner: Passing Diamond (IRE) at SP 15/8. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Passing Diamond Fox #2 15/8
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2
Passengerontheship 13/2
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3
Ballykinlar Fox #3 3/1
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4
Tiddesley Wood Fox #1 15/8
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3