← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Naas Farm Machinery Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Unauthorized
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 24%
Mr Fox says
Unauthorized (SR:86, 5/1, 9-11) is the pick on the strength of a 16% market move in — the sharpest steaming in this field — combined with a competitive SR of 86 that sits right at the top of the field alongside Stag Night. As a 3-year-old from Aidan Melia's yard (15% strike rate, the best in the field), the form string '-71827' shows a recent placed run in the seventh position then a marked improvement to second last time, and the apprentice claimer's 5lb allowance gives a meaningful weight edge: 9-11 against Keke's 10-3 represents a massive 6lb swing in real terms. While DistFit:- and GoingFit:? are flags, the market confidence is too loud to ignore and the weight advantage in this soft-ground five-furlong contest is material. Each-way alternative: Stag Night. Main danger: Stag Night — Stag Night (SR:87, 5/1, GoingFit:+) is the highest-rated horse in the field with a confirmed liking for soft ground and course form (W2P3 at Naas), and though it has drifted slightly, the ability ceiling is the best here.
Full result
Winner: Stag Night (IRE) at SP 13/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Stag Night Fox #2 7/1
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2
Gerrit's Gem Fox #4 4/1
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3
Keke Fox #3 4/1
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4
Bounty 20/1
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5
Bay Of Supremacy 12/1
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6
Apache Outlaw 4/1
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7
Gazelle d'Or 16/1
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8
Cuban Grey 9/1
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9
Harry's Hill 33/1
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10
Allsortz 14/1
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11
Unauthorized Fox #1 7/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Unauthorized 5/1 11TH
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2
Stag Night 5/1 SP 13/2 🏆 WON
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3
Keke 7/2 🥉 3RD
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4
Gerrit's Gem 9/1 🥈 2ND