← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Dragonbet Cefnogi Rasio Ceffylau Cymreig Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Leader Crik
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Leader Crik (SR:123, 5/2) is the market's clear choice and the data supports that confidence: a 4-star AI probability rating, the lowest weight among the top-SR horses at 11-8, and a form string of '261-' that shows progressive improvement — the dash indicating a most recent run that requires context but the prior sequence is solid for a 5-year-old. As the youngest horse in the field by two years, Leader Crik carries the upside of an unexposed profile at 2m7f131y; the DistFit:? signals unproven stamina but not failure, and at five years old this trip may well suit better than shorter. The Twiston-Davies yard (13%) with Sam Twiston-Davies (17%) is a trusted combination in Welsh National Hunt racing, and at 5/2 the market is backing a progressive type stepping into Class 2 with untapped potential. Each-way alternative: Matty's Getaway. Main danger: Service Minimum — Service Minimum (SR:124, 4/1) has the highest SR in the field, was trained by the in-form Dan Skelton (22%) with Harry Skelton (26%) aboard, showed a recent '711-71' including back-to-back wins, and ran just 23 days ago confirming peak fitness — the class rise (↑1) and MarkMv:+6 are the only hesitations, but Skelton runners that carry those signals still win at a high rate.
Full result
Winner: Matty's Getaway (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Matty's Getaway Fox #2 10/3
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2
Thank You Ma'am 40/1
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3
Time To Bite 18/1
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4
King of The Lake 17/2
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5
Tune In A Box 13/2
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6
Jury's In Fox #4 7/2
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7
Deep Cave 22/1
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8
Leader Crik Fox #1 9/4
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9
Alien Storm 28/1
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—
Service Minimum Fox #3 4/1
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—
Oakley 22/1
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Jalisco Star 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Leader Crik 5/2 8TH
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2
Matty's Getaway 4/1 SP 9/2 🏆 WON
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3
Service Minimum 4/1
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4
Jury's In 7/1 6TH