← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Fillies Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Ankara
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Ankara (SR 77, 11/2, 10-0) is the O'Brien yard's #1 runner — the stable has deployed the more experienced senior jockey booking in Shay Wallace and the market has shortened 8% since opening, signalling yard confidence. Carrying top-weight at 10-0 is a concern on soft ground, but the tongue-tie application (first time with tp headgear) combined with the 13-day turnaround suggests a horse being primed for this specific spot. The SR of 77 matches the field's competitive ceiling, and while DistFit and GoingFit are unproven (?), the O'Brien operation's 16% strike rate over 3,213 runners is the strongest trainer angle in the race. At 11/2, the implied market probability (~15%) undervalues the yard + headgear + market-in combination. Each-way alternative: Vanir. Main danger: Vanir — Vanir (SR 84, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field at the lowest weight among the serious contenders (9-9), and though the market has drifted 18% and GoingFit is unproven, Ben Coen's 11% strike rate on 1,881 rides plus a recent form sequence ending in a '2' at the same trip suggests this 3-year-old's peak ability could be decisive if the soft ground suits.
Full result
Winner: Vanir (IRE) at SP 4/1J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Vanir Fox #2 9/2
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2
Speckled Meadow 18/1
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3
Fratas 9/2
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4
Ankara Fox #1 6/1
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5
Navy Waters Fox #4 4/1
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6
Letiza Fox #3 7/1
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7
Stars Will Shine 15/2
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8
Apercu 14/1
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9
Queen Of The Bogs 18/1
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10
Cherry Hill Girl 10/1
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11
Morgana Blue 22/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Ankara 11/2 🏁 4TH
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2
Vanir 9/2 SP 4/1J 🏆 WON
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3
Letiza 11/2 6TH
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4
Navy Waters 5/1 5TH