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Racing TV EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div II) (GBB Race)

16:45 Kempton (AW) Mon 12 Oct 2026 7f Class 4 Good to Soft 11 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Tredegar Square silks

Tredegar Square

MEDIUM Advised 11/8 Est. 38%

5TH

Mr Fox says

Tredegar Square (SR 154, 11/8) is the joint-highest rated horse in the field and the only runner with proven course form (Course:W1P1 at Kempton AW), which is a significant edge in a novice where trip and surface unfamiliarity can catch horses out. Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate is the strongest jockey booking in the race, partnering a James Fanshawe horse that wins 18% of its runners — a formidable combination. Alberich matches the SR at 154 and has been backed (Mkt:in7%), making it the genuine danger, but it carries 4lb less than Tredegar Square which narrows the weight advantage; crucially, Tredegar Square's course form is a concrete differentiator Alberich cannot match. The 63-day gap is a minor query but Fanshawe is a trainer who prepares horses carefully and the market at 11/8 shows no concern. Each-way alternative: Alberich. Main danger: Alberich — Alberich matches Tredegar Square's SR of 154, has been backed (Mkt:in7%), and carries 4lb less in weight — if this is a horse still on the upgrade, the lighter burden could prove decisive over 7f.

Verify· #23036

Full result

Winner: Twilight Fox (GB) at SP 100/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Twilight Fox silks Twilight Fox Henry Candy · Nicola Currie 80/1
  2. 2 Alberich silks Alberich Fox #2 Harry Eustace · Kaiya Fraser 15/8
  3. 3 Harpagoside silks Harpagoside Marco Botti · Benoit de la Sayette 4/1
  4. 4 Huwa Baree silks Huwa Baree Charlie Johnston · Billy Loughnane 13/2
  5. 5 Tredegar Square silks Tredegar Square Fox #1 James Fanshawe · Oisin Murphy 6/4
  6. 6 Desert Legend silks Desert Legend Richard Hannon · Sean Levey 14/1
  7. 7 Alpha Bella silks Alpha Bella Adam Kirby · Jason Watson 100/1
  8. 8 Taran Bolta silks Taran Bolta Fox #3 Jonathan Portman · Rob Hornby 66/1
  9. 9 Frankie Power silks Frankie Power Tom Dascombe · William Cox 150/1
  10. 10 Nil Satis Supreme silks Nil Satis Supreme Mark Loughnane · Hope Regan(7) 250/1
  11. 11 Saburo silks Saburo Sir Mark Prescott Bt · Luke Morris 100/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Tredegar Square silks Tredegar Square 11/8 5TH
  2. 2 Alberich silks Alberich 7/4 🥈 2ND
  3. 3 Taran Bolta silks Taran Bolta 50/1 8TH