← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
First Furnishings Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Raffles Angel
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 18%
Mr Fox says
Raffles Angel (SR:81, 5/1, Wgt:9-10) holds the second-highest SR in the field and is the only horse combining proven course form (Course:W2P3 at Yarmouth — a specialist track where familiarity matters) with market support (Mkt:in9%). The recent form string 633031 shows a last-time-out win and the return to the same class (ClassMv:=) means no step up in grade. Jockey Callum Shepherd (15% career strike rate) is a solid booking and the +3 mark rise is modest after a win. The main rival Methgal (SR:84) is the top-rated horse but has drifted 29% in the market and steps up a class (ClassMv:↑1) off a mark 7lb higher than at last win — three compounding negatives that make the favourite look vulnerable today. Each-way alternative: Startled Angel. Main danger: Methgal — Methgal's SR:84 is the highest in the field and the consistent 212212 form at a quicker turnaround (Days:13) suggests peak fitness, so if the class rise and mark rise don't blunt him, he has the raw ability to override the negatives.
Full result
Winner: Izzy Fast (GB) at SP 11/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Izzy Fast 12/1
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2
So Sassy 14/1
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3
Methgal Fox #2 4/1
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4
First Folio 14/1
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5
Good Earth 14/1
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6
Startled Lady Fox #3 10/1
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7
Kimbara 7/1
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8
Ribenska Fox #4 17/2
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9
Dark Side Thunder 16/1
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10
Frantic 17/2
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11
Splash 16/1
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12
Raffles Angel Fox #1 6/1
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13
Deluded 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Raffles Angel 5/1 12TH
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2
Methgal 10/3 🥉 3RD
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3
Startled Lady 8/1 6TH
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4
Ribenska 15/2 8TH