← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Roscommon Racecourse (C & G) Maiden
Mr Fox’s call
Karrygrant
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/8 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Karrygrant (SR:92, 15/8) is the joint-favourite and the only runner in the field with a confirmed DistFit:+ at this 7f111y trip, a crucial edge in a maiden where State Of Wyoming (DistFit:?) and Resurgence (DistFit:+) share the distance credential but Resurgence drifted in the challenge review. Trainer J. P. Murtagh (11%, 1371 runners) and jockey Ben Coen (11%, 1887 runners) form a consistent double-figure combination, and the consistent form line of 532322 shows a horse finding its level and knocking on the door — a '2' last time out just seven days ago suggests peak fitness. The headgear (tongue-tie + blinkers, HG:tb) applied adds focus, and at 15/8 the market is pricing this horse as co-favourite with no drift to concern us. State Of Wyoming holds the SR advantage at 154 versus 92, but a '06' form line, a visor first-time, and an 11% market drift are three concrete negatives that tip the balance toward Karrygrant. Each-way alternative: Resurgence. Main danger: State Of Wyoming — State Of Wyoming holds the highest SR in the field at 154 and trainer P. Twomey strikes at 25% — if the visor sharpens him up and the '06' form line understates his ability, he has the raw talent to win despite the drift.
Full result
Winner: State Of Wyoming (IRE) at SP 7/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
State Of Wyoming Fox #2 15/8
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2
Karrygrant Fox #1 3/1
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3
Resurgence Fox #3 9/4
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4
Hassaniya 11/1
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5
A Good Yarn Fox #4 4/1
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6
Spider Star 125/1
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7
Howya Pal 200/1
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8
Mr Mercury 300/1
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9
Caption This 300/1
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10
California Max 125/1
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11
Airborne Ranger 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Karrygrant 15/8 🥈 2ND
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2
State Of Wyoming 15/8 SP 7/4F 🏆 WON
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3
Resurgence 3/1 🥉 3RD
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4
A Good Yarn 13/2 5TH