← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Lady Dapple Rose
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Lady Dapple Rose (SR:87, 10/3) is the standout value pick here. She carries the lightest competitive weight at 11-5 among the top-rated trio, and critically is the only runner showing genuine market confidence — a 17% inward move (Mkt:in17%) in a field where four others are drifting significantly. Her trainer Ben Pauling (17% strike rate from 711 runners) books Beau Morgan, a 5lb claimer who brings a 17% strike rate of his own, meaning the effective weight is closer to 10-14, a real advantage. The most recent F in her form (835-F9) warrants scrutiny, but the market's deliberate move toward her — against the grain of the field — suggests connections are confident she's past that incident and ready to perform at this Class 5 level where she remains on the same mark. Each-way alternative: Yanka Blue. Main danger: Yanka Blue — Yanka Blue (SR:83, 4/1) has shortened 56% in the market — the most dramatic inward move in the field — carries a featherweight 10-5, and has confirmed good-to-firm form (GoingFit:+), all of which the market is clearly reacting to despite a poor distance record (DistFit:-).
Full result
Winner: Barafundle Bay (GB) at SP 8/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Barafundle Bay 9/1
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2
Zaraquelle 9/2
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3
Yanka Blue Fox #3 11/2
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4
Mahon Falls 20/1
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Miracles Do Happen Fox #2 3/1
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Siorai Fox #4 5/1
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Lady Dapple Rose Fox #1 3/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4