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British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Atlantic Grace
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 SP 2/1F Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Atlantic Grace (SR 155, 11/4) is the standout on ability — her SR is 17 points clear of the next-best Setubal (SR 138) and 33 points ahead of Romotoso (SR 82), an enormous gap at Class 5 novice level. She is a debutante, which is the only caveat, but the market has backed that inexperience into second favourite and steamed in 30% (Mkt:in30%), meaning significant money has come for her post-opening. Tom Clover (17% strike rate, 683 runners) is a competent handler of debut youngsters and David Egan is a strong booking. The SR edge is so pronounced here that the debut risk is outweighed by clear class superiority over this field. Each-way alternative: Romotoso. Main danger: Romotoso — Romotoso (SR 82, 5/2) is the market favourite, carries the lightest weight (8-13), has a proven distance record (DistFit:+), and consistent placed form (3226) from William Knight who strikes at 14% — if Atlantic Grace's debut inexperience proves costly early, Romotoso's race experience and distance fitness make her the likeliest beneficiary.
Full result
Winner: Atlantic Grace (GB) at SP 2/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Atlantic Grace Fox #1 9/4
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2
Tradittion 12/1
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3
Classic Bellini 11/1
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4
Lady Foxtrot 10/3
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5
Beverleighann 28/1
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6
Adelaides Turn 40/1
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7
Romidijo 14/1
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8
Romotoso Fox #2 5/2
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9
Kissamee 33/1
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10
Setubal Fox #3 14/1
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11
Fancied Angel 40/1
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12
Massa Go Go 200/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Atlantic Grace 11/4 SP 2/1F 🏆 WON
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2
Romotoso 5/2 8TH
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3
Setubal 12/1 10TH