← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div II) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Hoya Bella
MEDIUM Advised 2/1 Est. 36%
Mr Fox says
Hoya Bella (SR:157, 2/1) matches Wedyan at the top of the SR rankings but carries 3lb less (9-2 vs 8-13 means they are level — actually Hoya Bella is heavier, but the critical edge is the 45% market steam into 2/1, the strongest inward move in the field, against Wedyan's 21% drift from what was a shorter price). James Owen's 19% trainer strike rate is the best in the field and David Probert is a solid booking at 13%. Wedyan (SR:157, 6/4) is the market leader but has drifted notably — from roughly 11/10 to 6/4, a 21% move out — which in a novice for fillies at this level is a meaningful signal that stable confidence has cooled since declarations. The drop in class (ClassMv:↓1) for Hoya Bella after a debut third confirms connections are targeting this as a winnable opportunity, and the significant money coming for her at 2/1 is the clearest directional signal in the race. Each-way alternative: Clarice Starling. Main danger: Wedyan — Wedyan shares the joint-top SR:157 with Hoya Bella, is trained by James Tate (18% strike rate) with Rossa Ryan aboard (18%), and despite the drift remains on a very short price — if the drift is noise rather than a stable signal, her debut second on a presumably faster surface gives her every chance to reverse the market narrative.
Full result
Winner: Wedyan (IRE) at SP 5/2J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Wedyan Fox #2 15/8
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2
On The Queue Tee 11/1
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3
Pivotal Voyage Fox #3 10/3
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4
Hoya Bella Fox #1 5/2
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5
Angelic Melody 66/1
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6
Clarice Starling Fox #4 15/2
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7
Dreamawhile 300/1
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8
Enalia 100/1
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9
Miss Eileen 33/1
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10
Claudia Miss 40/1
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11
Literary 16/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4