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JCP Solicitors Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Wandering Ego
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Wandering Ego (SR:129, 9/2, Wgt:10-6) offers the best combination of proven conditions and stable support. DistFit:+ and GoingFit:~ confirm he handles today's trip and going bucket adequately, he drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) and runs off a mark fractionally below his last win (MarkMv:-1), which is a small but genuine positive. Sean Bowen (24% strike rate, 2406 runners) is one of the top NH jockeys in the country and is a meaningful upgrade signal. The favourite Sinnatra has drifted 17% in the market despite a higher SR (134), carries a punishing 11-10, is 187 days absent, running off a mark 8lb above his last win (MarkMv:+8) and that combined headgear/weight/drift cluster is a specific set of negatives that justifies opposition. Pourquoi Pas Papa holds the highest SR (142) but is a 4-year-old novice with DistFit:? and GoingFit:? — both conditions unproven — making a confident market price of 9/4 hard to trust at this trip on this ground. Each-way alternative: Desertmore News. Main danger: Pourquoi Pas Papa — Pourquoi Pas Papa holds the highest SR in the field (142) at a favourable weight (10-5) with a top trainer (Paul Nicholls, 22%), and if the unproven distance and going questions (DistFit:? GoingFit:?) resolve positively on the day, his class superiority could simply overpower the field.
Full result
Winner: Sinnatra (IRE) at SP 9/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Sinnatra 13/8
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2
Pourquoi Pas Papa Fox #2 15/8
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3
Desertmore News Fox #3 7/1
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4
Wandering Ego Fox #1 9/2
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5
Light Fandango 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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