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Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Lillie Margot
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Lillie Margot (SR 78, 11/4) is the standout on raw ability — the highest SR in the field by 5 points over Ice Cube (SR 73) — and carries a manageable 9-9 for a 3-year-old dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1). The market has spoken loudly with a 30% inward move, the strongest steaming signal in the field. She holds course form (Course:W1P2), proven at the trip (DistFit:+), and while GoingFit is unknown, the form string 721347 shows consistent competitiveness with a recent win. The combination of top SR, class drop, course record, and significant market support is the clearest multi-signal case in the race. Each-way alternative: Vega's Virtue. Main danger: Ice Cube — Ice Cube (SR 73, 11/4) shares the same price as the selection and has a consistent recent form line including a win (561416), with a lighter weight of 9-3 and an in-form jockey booking in Saffie Osborne (14% strike rate), though the confirmed poor distance record (DistFit:-) and a 43% market drift are serious concerns that keep it second in the shortlist.
Full result
Winner: Vega's Virtue (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Vega's Virtue Fox #3 5/1
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2
Ice Cube Fox #2 9/4
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3
Lillie Margot Fox #1 3/1
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4
Far Far Out 50/1
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5
Napolian 10/1
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6
Trinculo 10/1
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7
Blue Hill 13/2
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8
Fickle McSelfish 10/1
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Shadow Run 13/2
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Ephron -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3