← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Fiveandahalf
MEDIUM Advised 15/8 SP 6/5F Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Fiveandahalf (SR:157, 15/8) is the highest-rated runner in a field where quality falls away sharply below the top two, and crucially carries 11-11 — the same weight as Apache Peak (SR:158, 5/2) — so there is no meaningful weight disadvantage to explain away. The form line '4-1' shows a recent win on return from a break, trainer Gavin Cromwell runs a dual-runner yard and has deployed Keith Donoghue, his more experienced booking at 13% career strike rate versus Ben Harvey (7%) on stablemate Caprison — a clear signal this is Cromwell's number one. The market at 15/8 has held without drift, contrasting sharply with Apache Peak's Mkt:out7%, where the money is gently moving against the favourite on a 206-day absence. Each-way alternative: Thinkitdontjinxit. Main danger: Apache Peak — Apache Peak carries the highest SR in the field at 158, has proven distance fitness (DistFit:+), and runs for a yard with a solid 10% strike rate — a 206-day absence and a gentle market drift are the only flags against what is otherwise a formidable profile.
Full result
Winner: Fiveandahalf (IRE) at SP 6/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Fiveandahalf Fox #1 9/4
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2
Quest For Answers 33/1
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3
Whisky Lads Fox #4 6/1
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4
Apache Peak Fox #2 2/1
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5
Caprison 125/1
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6
Highland Call 80/1
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7
Marine Tycoon 66/1
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8
Deralo Ir 80/1
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9
Thranduil 150/1
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10
River Ore 100/1
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11
Ragstoriches 50/1
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12
Silken Thomas 14/1
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13
Two Grand Sweeney 20/1
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14
Issy's Lad 125/1
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15
Magna Gee Gee 125/1
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—
Thinkitdontjinxit Fox #3 9/4
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Fiveandahalf 15/8 SP 6/5F 🏆 WON
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2
Apache Peak 5/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Thinkitdontjinxit 3/1
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4
Whisky Lads 9/1 🥉 3RD