← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Ballymoreen
MEDIUM Advised 11/8 SP 4/5F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Ballymoreen (SR 105, 11/8) is the standout on ability — top SR in the field at 105, 3lb clear of That Is Blue and 8lb clear of the third-rated Atreides — and carries a very manageable 11-2, identical to Atreides and 10lb less than the top-weights. Emma Lavelle's 18% career strike rate is the best of any trainer here, Harry Cobden's 22% is the standout jockey booking by a wide margin, and connections have not run this horse in 192 days, suggesting a deliberate seasonal return at a Class 5 target. The market has held firm with a 7% move inward (Mkt:in7%), endorsing the form case. The form string 41642 shows ability to win and place at this sort of level, and dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1) into a thin six-runner field at Fontwell gives connections an obvious opportunity. Each-way alternative: Atreides. Main danger: That Is Blue — That Is Blue (SR 102, 11/2) carries only 11-6 for Henrietta Knight, whose 12% strike rate is solid, and a consistent 333 form line suggests a horse that is always competitive and could convert at a venue with a small field if Ballymoreen fails to fire on its first run back in 192 days.
Full result
Winner: Ballymoreen (IRE) at SP 4/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ballymoreen Fox #1 11/10
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2
That Is Blue Fox #2 5/1
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3
Atreides Fox #3 9/2
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4
Painted Wolf 5/1
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5
Brave Guest 10/1
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Just Forty 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3