← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Racing Tv Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Velvet Outlaw
MEDIUM Advised 6/4 Est. 36%
Mr Fox says
Velvet Outlaw (SR:152, 6/4) combines the strongest connections in the field with a stable market: Olly Murphy (23% strike rate from 1,817 runners) and Sean Bowen (24% from 2,410 runners) are a top-tier pairing for a bumper of this nature, and the price has held firm with no drift. The SR of 152 is second-highest in the field but the connections advantage over Still Game's drifting 15/8 is decisive — Skelton/Skelton are excellent but Still Game has drifted 9% (Mkt:out9%), a clear signal of reduced confidence. Velvet Outlaw's single prior run ended in a fall (Form:F-), which is an isolated incident rather than a pattern, and a 4-year-old from a powerful yard represents the archetypal bumper improver. Carrying 11-3 matches Saint De Gemix and Still Game, giving no weight disadvantage against the SR peers. Each-way alternative: Still Game. Main danger: Still Game — Still Game holds the highest SR in the field at 154 and Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton remain elite bumper connections despite the 9% drift, and a debut run with no form line offers no evidence of a ceiling.
Full result
Winner: Still Game (IRE) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Still Game Fox #2 11/4
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2
Velvet Outlaw Fox #1 10/11
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3
Cockle Bay Wharf 18/1
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4
Saint De Gemix Fox #3 10/3
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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3