← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox

Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)

18:30 Southwell (AW) Thu 15 Oct 2026 7f14y Class 6 Good 13 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Sonbelievable silks

Sonbelievable

SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 23%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Sonbelievable (SR:56, 7/2, Wgt:9-7) has been steamed in 35% from its opening price — the most emphatic market move in the field by some distance — suggesting strong stable confidence after 90 days off. Dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) into a Class 6 heat is a significant advantage, and at 3 years old there is scope for improvement that older rivals in this basement race lack. Luke Morris (12% career strike rate, 3,082 runners — a seasoned operator) is a positive booking for a Joseph Parr yard (12%, 413 runners) that sends runners out fit to win. The DistFit:- is noted — this trip is unproven — but GoingFit:? rather than GoingFit:- means there is no confirmed aversion to Good ground, and in a field where every runner carries a DistFit:-, it is not a differentiating weakness. Each-way alternative: Distillate. Main danger: Distillate — Distillate (SR:59, 4/1, Wgt:9-2) shares the joint-highest SR in the field, carries the lightest weight of the leading contenders, drops two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) and has had its mark cut by 6lb (MarkMv:-6), making it potentially well-treated on a line through its best form despite the messy recent record of 0B0388.

Verify· #23586

Full result

Winner: Distillate (GB) at SP 11/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Distillate silks Distillate Fox #2 Adrian McGuinness · M. P. Sheehy 11/4
  2. 2 Based silks Based Fox #3 William Knight · Cieren Fallon 9/2
  3. 3 Sonbelievable silks Sonbelievable Fox #1 Joseph Parr · Luke Morris 7/2
  4. 4 Mickey Mongoose silks Mickey Mongoose Olly Williams · Duran Fentiman 8/1
  5. 5 Men of Honour silks Men of Honour Fox #4 Ruth Carr · James Sullivan 7/1
  6. 6 Megaphone silks Megaphone Scott Dixon · Christian Howarth(3) 12/1
  7. 7 Edergole's Gift silks Edergole's Gift Conrad Allen · Darragh Keenan 11/1
  8. 8 Auradue silks Auradue Roy Bowring · Lewis Edmunds 18/1
  9. 9 My Prerogative silks My Prerogative David Killahena & Graeme McPherson · Jason Watson 22/1
  10. 10 Pink Socks silks Pink Socks Stephanie Cassidy · Oliver Carmichael(7) 66/1
  11. 11 Gloriola silks Gloriola Steph Hollinshead · Zak Wheatley 25/1
  12. — Vitalline silks Vitalline Keiran Burke · Jack Mitchell 9/1
  13. — Neat And Tidy silks Neat And Tidy Damien Wingrove · Charlie Tucker(7) 40/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Sonbelievable silks Sonbelievable 7/2 🥉 3RD
  2. 2 Distillate silks Distillate 4/1 SP 11/4F 🏆 WON
  3. 3 Based silks Based 7/2 🥈 2ND
  4. 4 Men of Honour silks Men of Honour 15/2 5TH