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Vantage Consulting Powered By Requidex Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Resemblance
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Resemblance (SR:81, 2/1) is the clear SR leader in the field by a margin of 5+ points over every rival, and that ability gap is meaningful in a Class 5 nursery where the ceiling is modest. The form line 0271 shows a last-time-out win, and while MarkMv:+5 means she runs off a higher mark today, her SR still comfortably tops the field. Michael Bell (13% strike rate, 1,015 runners) books Hector Crouch (18%, 1,956 runners) — one of the stronger jockey-trainer combinations in this field. The market has held her as favourite without drifting, which is notable given several rivals are drifting significantly (Baarberini out 19%, Crazy Cubana out 18%, Pure Majesty out 11%). Each-way alternative: Blanquita. Main danger: Blanquita — Blanquita (SR:73, 13/2) is the most significant market mover in the race — in 37% since opening — carries the lightest weight at 8-13, drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), and the Cunha/Levey combination appear to have genuine confidence in her today.
Full result
Winner: Crazy Cubana (IRE) at SP 6/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Crazy Cubana Fox #3 11/2
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2
Blanquita Fox #2 9/2
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3
Resemblance Fox #1 13/8
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4
Koodini 20/1
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5
Pure Majesty 5/1
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6
Deputy Vice 18/1
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7
Tango Hotel 22/1
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8
Baarberini 9/1
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9
Indian Land 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Resemblance 2/1 🥉 3RD
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2
Blanquita 13/2 🥈 2ND
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3
Crazy Cubana 11/2 SP 6/1 🏆 WON