← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Jill Wilcox Jones Memorial EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Asheyra
MEDIUM Advised 6/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Asheyra (SR 91, 6/4) is the market favourite and, after the challenge round, the correct pick. Although Grateful Spirit carries an SR of 153 and has firmed 7% in the market, the challenge test exposes a key asymmetry: Asheyra has a marked drift of 23% (Mkt:out23%), which is a hard negative — but Grateful Spirit is a complete unknown (unraced, DistFit:?, GoingFit:?) on heavy ground at 6f, and heavy going at Haydock is a genuine test that can expose debutantes brutally. Asheyra's Form:323 shows consistent placed form at this class and distance (DistFit:+), and while the drift is a concern, Faith In Florence (SR 94, Mkt:in10%) is the stronger challenger, not the debutante. In a four-runner maiden on heavy ground, established placed form and proven trip fitness outweigh untested ability. Each-way alternative: Faith In Florence. Main danger: Faith In Florence — Faith In Florence (SR 94, 15/8) has firmed 10% in the market — the strongest money in the race — and her Form:4232 shows she is consistently competitive at this class and distance (DistFit:+), making her the likeliest horse to beat Asheyra if the drift proves meaningful.
Full result
Winner: Faith In Florence (IRE) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Faith In Florence Fox #2 4/5
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2
Show And Tell 9/2
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3
Asheyra Fox #1 2/1
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Grateful Spirit Fox #3 7/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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3