Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing)

16:35 Ascot Sat 17 Oct 2026 1m0f0y Class 2 Good 23 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Scoville

SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 22%

🏁 4TH

Mr Fox says

Scoville (SR 110, 7/2) is the top-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and carries a very manageable 9-1, giving it a significant SR edge over Hickory (SR 108, 8/1) and Gavriel (SR 109, 9/2) without a crushing weight burden. The market has shortened 12% since opening — money is coming in, not going out — and William Haggas (23% strike rate, 2135 runners) is one of the most powerful yards in the country. The last-run form figure of 1 confirms a recent win, and DistFit:+ confirms the mile is within range. The GoingFit:~ is the one concern, but good ground is close enough to conditions Scoville has handled before, and the combination of top SR, market support, elite trainer, and a winning return from 35 days off makes this the strongest multi-signal case in the field. Each-way alternative: Hickory. Main danger: Gavriel — Gavriel (SR 109, 9/2) is from the top Gosden yard, carries the minimum 9-0, has course form (W1P1 at Ascot) and a form string of 41-214 showing consistent competitiveness at this level — the 6lb weight-for-age advantage over Scoville is real in a race run on good ground over a flat mile, even if the slight drift (Mkt:out8%) and unproven going (GoingFit:?) temper enthusiasm slightly.

Verify· #23970

Full result

Winner: Fifth Column at SP 22/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.