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17:45 Dundalk (AW) Wed 04 Nov 2026 0m7f0y Good 9 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Elmakaya

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 19%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Elmakaya (SR:84, 5/2) is the market favourite and the only runner in the field with meaningful race experience to point to — a form string of 234394 shows consistent participation and a GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's good AW surface. Transatlantico has the superior SR (141 vs 84) and a 25% steam-in, but is entirely unraced (Form:------) with unknown distance and going fitness (DistFit:?, GoingFit:?), meaning the SR advantage is theoretical rather than demonstrated. Elmakaya's key rival Otsana (11/4) has drifted 8% and also carries DistFit:? and GoingFit:?, weakening the case for the horse priced shorter. The favourite's own drift (Mkt:out18%) is a genuine concern, but in a maiden with this many debutants, proven racecourse experience on confirmed going — even at SR:84 — is a more reliable signal than unraced ability. Each-way alternative: Transatlantico. Main danger: Otsana — Otsana (11/4, SR:78) is priced shorter than Elmakaya despite the drift and comes from P. Twomey's yard (25% strike rate), and a form string of 533 shows progressive placed runs that could translate on the AW.

Verify· #27057

Full result

Winner: Justiciar (IRE) at SP 9/4J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Justiciar G. M. Lyons · Jack Kearney 9/4
2 Otsana Fox #3 P. Twomey · Siobhan Rutledge 3/1
3 Elmakaya Fox #1 D K Weld · Leigh Roche 9/4
4 Carry The Dream W P Browne · Jack Cleary(5) 12/1
5 All About Noa Jack W Davison · James Ryan 16/1
6 Jenny Spider G. M. Lyons · Nicola Burns(5) 25/1
7 Allez Magh Glas M J Tynan · Orla Tynan(7) 18/1
8 Sron Na Caise K J Condon · Gavin Ryan 11/1
— Transatlantico Fox #2 Miss Natalia Lupini · Robbie Colgan 12/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Elmakaya 5/2 🥉 3RD
2 Transatlantico 12/1
3 Otsana 11/4 🥈 2ND