← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
The Hare Rail
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
The Hare Rail (SR:82, 7/2) shares the top SR in the field alongside Havana Touch but carries 9-8 — 8lb less than Havana Touch's 10-0 — a meaningful weight advantage in a Class 4 handicap. Crucially, Havana Touch has drifted 19% in the market and has a GoingFit:- on today's Good going, while The Hare Rail has been backed in 15% and shows GoingFit:~ with a last-time-out 2 (placed finish) on a form line of 729312 suggesting upward trajectory. Billy Loughnane (18% strike rate from 3,248 rides) is a strong booking, and the ClassMv:↑1 is offset by the weight relief at 9-8 versus top-weight. The market is moving in The Hare Rail's favour while actively opposing the nominal favourite. Each-way alternative: Kalamunda. Main danger: Havana Touch — Havana Touch shares the top SR (82) and while it has drifted and has GoingFit:-, its top-class jockey David Egan and consistent recent form (261281) mean it cannot be entirely dismissed if the going suits better than the record suggests.
Full result
Winner: Havana Touch (GB) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Havana Touch Fox #3 11/4
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2
Bajan Bandit 11/2
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3
Sea Founder 9/1
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4
The Hare Rail Fox #1 5/2
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5
Kalamunda Fox #2 11/1
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6
This Farh 16/1
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7
Nakaaha Fox #4 8/1
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8
Hitched 25/1
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9
Golden Pharaoh 18/1
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10
Musashi 100/1
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11
Mighty Vega 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
The Hare Rail 7/2 🏁 4TH
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2
Kalamunda 10/1 5TH
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3
Havana Touch 10/3 SP 3/1 🏆 WON
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4
Nakaaha 6/1 7TH