← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Roosike
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 17%
Mr Fox says
Roosike (SR:74, 11/2) combines the strongest package of signals in this field. DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm proven competence at today's trip and going, rare in this field where most runners show '?' or '-' on one or both counts. The mark has dropped 3lb since last win (MarkMv:-3), making this the most favourable handicap position of recent starts, and the market has steamed 30% (Mkt:in30%) — meaningful money arriving on a horse already carrying a reduced mark. Billy Loughnane's 18% career strike rate is the strongest jockey booking in the field. The favourite National Pride (SR:77, 2/1) is opposed on a specific flaw: DistFit:- confirms a poor record at 7f, GoingFit:? means AW good ground is unproven, and stepping down two classes (ClassMv:↓2) from a yard with strong SR suggests the form line of '6244' may flatter. Each-way alternative: Californian Angel. Main danger: National Pride — National Pride carries the highest SR in the field (77) for William Haggas (23% strike rate), is market-backed (Mkt:in17%), and drops two classes — if it handles the 7f trip better than its DistFit:- record suggests, raw ability could overcome that concern.
Full result
Winner: National Pride (IRE) at SP 6/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
National Pride Fox #2 13/8
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2
Roosike Fox #1 4/1
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3
Ten of Clubs 66/1
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4
Kigali 8/1
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5
Potters Margot 10/1
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6
Royal Titan 9/1
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7
Star Bayside Boy 25/1
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8
Californian Angel Fox #4 7/1
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9
Maliqui 16/1
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10
Marhaba Ya Tayib 10/1
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11
Absolute Diamond 66/1
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—
Artemis Star Fox #3 SP
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Roosike 11/2 🥈 2ND
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2
National Pride 2/1 SP 6/4F 🏆 WON
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3
Artemis Star 7/1
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4
Californian Angel 15/2 8TH