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AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

17:45 Chelmsford (AW) Thu 05 Nov 2026 7f Class 4 Good 5 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Missmisfortune silks

Missmisfortune

MEDIUM Advised 5/4 SP 8/11F Est. 42%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Missmisfortune (SR:158, 5/4) is the standout on ability — the highest SR in the field by 11 points over Two Steps Twice — and the market has backed that up emphatically with an 18% inward move. Rossa Ryan's booking (18% career strike rate across 3,029 rides) is a strong professional signal. The DistFit:- flag is a concern at 7f, but the addition of a hood (HG:h) suggests connections are addressing the horse's focus rather than a fitness issue, and the step to this trip in a Class 4 novice against weaker rivals is a manageable ask for a 158-rated animal. Baandee (11/10) is the market rival but has drifted 23% — a sharp exit signal — carries a SR of only 91 (67 points below Missmisfortune), and a 189-day absence adds further risk despite proven course/going fitness. Each-way alternative: Two Steps Twice. Main danger: Baandee — Baandee has proven DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ at Chelmsford AW, a consistent 22-22 form line, and starts from a low weight of 9-2 — if the 189-day absence hasn't blunted the horse and the drift is simply market overreaction to the layoff, the course fitness edge could matter more than the SR gap suggests.

Verify· #27254

Full result

Winner: Missmisfortune (IRE) at SP 8/11F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Missmisfortune silks Missmisfortune Fox #1 Charlie Pike · Rossa Ryan 11/10
  2. 2 Baandee silks Baandee Fox #3 Jack Morland · George Wood 11/10
  3. 3 Two Steps Twice silks Two Steps Twice Fox #2 Charlie Fellowes · Mikkel Mortensen(5) 9/1
  4. 4 Intsaar silks Intsaar Archie Watson · Miss Remie Morgan(7) 28/1
  5. 5 Tilsworth Boe silks Tilsworth Boe J. R. Jenkins · Oliver Carmichael(7) 250/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Missmisfortune silks Missmisfortune 5/4 SP 8/11F 🏆 WON
  2. 2 Two Steps Twice silks Two Steps Twice 8/1 🥉 3RD
  3. 3 Baandee silks Baandee 11/10 🥈 2ND