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BetVictor Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (Div II) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Newgrove
MEDIUM Advised 6/4 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Newgrove (SR 156, 6/4) is the standout on every meaningful metric in this NH Flat field. His SR of 156 sits 8 points clear of the next best (Twin Horns at 148) and the market has held firm at 6/4 with no drift — a confident yard signal from Dan Skelton (22% career strike rate, 2,743 runners) with Harry Skelton in the saddle (27%, 1,757 runners), arguably the most potent NH Flat combination in Britain right now. His Form:1- shows a winning debut, and in a division where all distance and going fits are unknown (?), that sole piece of form evidence is decisive. The 5lb weight advantage over Twin Horns (11-2 vs 10-9) is marginal but adds to the case. Each-way alternative: Twin Horns. Main danger: Brazilian Blue — Brazilian Blue (SR 145, 8/1, Mkt:in29%) is the most aggressively backed runner outside the top two and carries the same SR as Radiant Walk despite the stronger market move, suggesting Honeyball's yard has genuine confidence ahead of this debut.
Full result
Winner: Radiant Walk (IRE) at SP 16/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Radiant Walk 9/1
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2
Newgrove Fox #1 5/6
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3
Brazilian Blue Fox #3 18/1
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4
Hector Le Prince 33/1
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5
Treble Three Fox #4 7/1
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6
Geissler 7/1
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7
Cheerio For Now 28/1
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8
Mister Realistic 9/1
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9
Twin Horns Fox #2 14/1
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10
Vernon 50/1
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11
Power of Authority 125/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Newgrove 6/4 🥈 2ND
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2
Twin Horns 8/1 9TH
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3
Brazilian Blue 8/1 🥉 3RD
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4
Treble Three 5/1 5TH