← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
attheraces.com/marketmovers "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Albatross The Ace
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 29%
Mr Fox says
Albatross The Ace (SR 98, 11/4) is the only runner in the field with a form figure to point to — a win last time out 30 days ago — which in a field of largely debutants is a meaningful edge in itself. The market has backed that judgement with a 7% move in, suggesting informed support, and while top-weight at 11-9 is a concern, the 7lb advantage it gives the field is offset by being the most race-hardened runner. Ivan Furtado's 10% yard strike rate is modest but William Shanahan has a solid 19% career rate from 73 rides. That Guy (SR 106, 9/4) is the market leader but has drifted 11% — a notable move against a Dan Skelton debutant who would normally attract confidence — and without a form figure, that drift is a specific red flag that tips the balance. Each-way alternative: Nathan du Chenet. Main danger: That Guy — That Guy holds the top SR in the field at 106 and Dan Skelton's 22% yard strike rate from nearly 2,800 runners is by far the strongest training record here — if the drift is noise rather than a signal, he could easily dominate on debut.
Full result
Winner: Nathan Du Chenet (FR) at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Nathan du Chenet Fox #2 17/2
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2
Bran Galad 11/2
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3
Hubris 17/2
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4
Noble Max Fox #3 12/1
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5
Albatross The Ace Fox #1 4/1
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6
That Guy Fox #4 11/4
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7
Lucky Tiger 11/2
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8
Knott End Princess 25/1
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9
Coronation Hill 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4