← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Call Star Sports On 08000 521 321 Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Melton Mossy
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 Est. 29%
Mr Fox says
Melton Mossy (SR 119, 9/4) is the highest-rated horse in this small field and arrives on the back of a win (form reading 61-541, rightmost digit 1 = last run a winner), which is the strongest recent form line here. GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good ground, a specific edge over both Enjoy d'Allen (GoingFit:-) and Ferret Jeeter (GoingFit:?). Although the market has drifted 7%, that drift is modest and may reflect the unproven trip (DistFit:?) rather than any fundamental concern about the horse — the opposition's flaws are significant enough to override it. At 9/4 in a four-runner field the implied probability (after overround adjustment) is around 32%, and with the best SR, proven going preference, and freshest winning form, that price is fair rather than wrong. Each-way alternative: Enjoy d'Allen. Main danger: Enjoy d'Allen — Enjoy d'Allen (SR 117, 5/1) has steamed in 34% in the market, holds genuine course form (W1P3 at Plumpton), and trainer Neil King fires at 22% — the money coming for a 12-year-old on this track deserves respect even with the GoingFit:- concern.
Full result
Winner: Diplomatic Ash (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Diplomatic Ash 11/2
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2
Melton Mossy Fox #1 11/4
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3
Ferret Jeeter Fox #3 11/10
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4
Enjoy d'Allen Fox #2 9/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3