Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Nursery Handicap Stakes

17:00 Southwell (AW) Thu 05 Nov 2026 6f16y Class 6 Good 14 runners

Mr Fox’s call

North Star Kodi

SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 25%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

North Star Kodi (SR:73, 10/3) is the clear SR leader in a field where the next best is SR:61, and that ability gap is meaningful at Class 6 level. The market has backed this view emphatically — a 29% move in since opening — making it the most significant market mover in the race alongside Rum Point's 62% steam (which is an SR:44 shot with a '079' form string, so almost certainly yard confidence rather than form). North Star Kodi carries 9-9, which is not a punishing weight given the class of opposition, and the Fahey/Orr combination (10%/14% career strike rates across substantial sample sizes) is solid. The DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flags are present but affect nearly every runner in this field — almost nobody has established credentials at 6f on AW good here — so they cancel out rather than single out this horse as uniquely disadvantaged. Each-way alternative: Commander Keith. Main danger: Pride's Queen — Pride's Queen (SR:60, 5/1) carries the lightest weight of the main contenders at 8-13 and the Botti/Ghiani combination posts a combined 16%/16% strike rate — if the drift (Mkt:out48%) is simply market noise rather than stable concern, the weight allowance could compensate at this class level.

Verify· #27236

Full result

Winner: Thai Baht (GB) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.