← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Unflinching
MEDIUM Advised 5/6 SP 11/8 Est. 46%
Mr Fox says
Unflinching (SR 154, 5/6) is the class standout in this field, sharing the top SR with Midtown Manhattan but carrying a significant weight advantage in terms of trainer firepower — Gordon Elliott at 18% strike rate with 4,141 runners is the dominant yard here. The market has shortened 9% since opening, confirming confidence, and the horse's flat form '1/16-' shows a winner on the board, with the recent blank run on the flat likely irrelevant to today's jumping context. At 5/6, the implied probability of roughly 50% is well-supported by the SR edge and the Elliott/market alignment. Midtown Manhattan (SR 154, 11/8) is the only genuine rival and has been steaming in (Mkt:in12%), but Elliott's market move on Unflinching is the stronger signal, and de Bromhead's jockey booking (Mike O'Connor at 6%) is notably weaker than the Unflinching connection. Each-way alternative: Midtown Manhattan. Main danger: Midtown Manhattan — Midtown Manhattan (SR 154, 11/8) matches Unflinching on SR, is trained by Henry de Bromhead (16% strike rate), is steaming in at Mkt:in12%, and finished second most recently — if the tongue-tie (HG:h) produces improvement, this could be the day it delivers.
Full result
Winner: Unflinching (FR) at SP 11/8. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Unflinching Fox #1 evn
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2
Blue Johnl 11/2
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3
Everin Dream 250/1
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4
French Adventure Fox #3 28/1
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5
Con Did It 33/1
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6
Sea Swirl 250/1
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7
Bog Cross 40/1
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8
The Yellow Capri 250/1
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9
Nothingtodowithyou 250/1
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10
Young Doran 11/1
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11
Don't Fusseme 22/1
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Back Swath 250/1
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Kaspar Des Bordes 50/1
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Lincall 15/2
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Midtown Manhattan Fox #2 6/4
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Unflinching 5/6 SP 11/8 🏆 WON
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2
Midtown Manhattan 11/8
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3
French Adventure 18/1 🏁 4TH