← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Distraction
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Distraction (SR 97, 4/1) is the second-highest rated horse in the field and has attracted meaningful market support — shortening 12% from its opening price — suggesting stable confidence in what is a wide-open bumper field. At SR 97 it sits just below market-drifter Red Seagull (SR 99) but the drift on Red Seagull (out 11%, 191 days off, trainer striking at only 5% from 22 runners) is a specific negative that the money has identified. Distraction's trainer David Kiely books Mr J L Gleeson on a 19% career strike rate from 358 rides — a solid amateur jockey stat in this point-to-point/bumper sphere — and the headgear (hood) suggests connections are applying a positive intervention. While DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are concerns, in a 12-runner bumper with this much uncertainty across the field, the market shortening and SR advantage over most rivals tips the balance. Each-way alternative: Greenbrier. Main danger: Greenbrier — Greenbrier (SR 95, 9/4) is trained by Gordon Elliott — 18% strike rate from 4,141 runners — and despite drifting 16% the sheer class of the yard means this lightly-raced four-year-old with only one run on its card could outperform its current market position if that debut form reads well in context.
Full result
Winner: Mhi Milani (IRE) at SP 14/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mhi Milani 10/1
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2
Red Seagull Fox #3 2/1
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3
Ruthless Rebel 40/1
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4
Greenbrier Fox #2 3/1
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5
Hoof And Hustle 200/1
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6
Order Of The King 80/1
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7
Sumoscalier 5/1
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8
Deadly Diva 40/1
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9
River Cartwright Fox #4 9/1
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10
Distraction Fox #1 3/1
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11
Cash Chase 250/1
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12
Mister Moon 200/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Distraction 4/1 10TH
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2
Greenbrier 9/4 🏁 4TH
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3
Red Seagull 2/1 🥈 2ND
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4
River Cartwright 11/2 9TH