Race-day Read · Saturday 6 June 2026

The Derby 2026

Where the maths meets the camber. Saturday's deep read on the Derby field, the verdicts behind the verdicts, and the 200/1 punt the desk can't shake.

Off in 16:00
Course Epsom
Distance 1m4f6y
Going Good to Soft
View full racecard Epsom · 16:00
The Field

14 declared runners.

Every horse, every angle. Ratings, pedigree, jockey bookings and Mr Fox's capsule note — or the API spotlight when the editor hasn't overlaid their own take.

3YO · 9-2 · P

Action silks Action

2.0 Fox's conviction
SR 105 AI rating
SP 18/1 Current
▲ Drifter — out from 14/1 → 16/1
Jockey
Wayne Lordan
Trainer
A P O'Brien
TS 123
Top 10%
RPR 127
Top 25%
Form 132-42
5 runs · 1 win · 3 places
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Closely related to 2025 Derby winner Lambourn; carries his head high but ended last season with a close, battling second in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster (1m, heavy) and front-running second in the Dante at York (10.2f, good) last month was of a similar order, albeit no match for Item in the final 1f; a disappointing, sluggish display on reappearance was his only start with tongue tied; likely to stay 1m4f, with a possible place role but it's unlikely to be more unless the new cheekpieces have a major positive effect.

  • Key strength SR rating 105
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Alderman silks Alderman

2.0 Fox's conviction
SR 69 AI rating
SP 100/1 Current
▼ Steamer — shortened from 100/1 → 80/1
Jockey
Pat Dobbs
Trainer
Richard Hannon
TS 100
Bottom half
RPR 98
Bottom half
Form 73-2
3 runs · 0 wins · 2 places
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Travelled well and challenged from the rear at Newbury (1m3f, good; 17-2) on reappearance seven weeks ago, sticking to his task manfully too while chasing home an exciting prospect at a respectful distance; a promising, scopey sort from a famous middle-distance family but his progressive form in maidens, without a win, does not make him a serious Derby contender.

  • Key strength Form figures encouraging
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Ancient Egypt silks Ancient Egypt

3.0 Fox's conviction
SR 103 AI rating
SP 25/1 Current
▲ Drifter — out from 14/1 → 22/1
Jockey
David Egan
TS 101
Bottom half
RPR 118
Bottom half
Form 117-1
4 runs · 3 wins · 0 places
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Frankel colt bought for 1,100,000gns as a yearling; all four races on good to firm; Beverley and Goodwood novice wins last summer before the Group 2 Royal Lodge saw a comprehensive end to his unbeaten record; he returned to Newmarket, however, with an ultimately authoritative win in a five-runner Listed race (1m2f) five weeks ago, helping to make the running; 1m4f beckons strongly after that and he's included in each-way calculations.

  • Key strength SR rating 103
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

A Taste Of Glory silks A Taste Of Glory

2.0 Fox's conviction
SR 77 AI rating
SP 150/1 Current
▼ Steamer — shortened from 150/1 → 125/1
Jockey
Jamie Spencer
Trainer
Andrew Balding
TS 78
Bottom half
RPR 104
Bottom half
Form 410-16
5 runs · 2 wins · 0 places
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Won a Brighton maiden and 1m2f AW handicap at Lingfield; however, he ended last season with last of ten in a French Group 1 (1m2f, very soft) and subsided rapidly to be last of six in the Lingfield Derby Trial (11.6f, good to firm; 33-1); his owner is renowned for Derby contenders who have run well at big prices, but hopes for this one may be stretching it.

  • Key strength Form figures encouraging
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Balzac silks Balzac

2.0 Fox's conviction
SR 86 AI rating
SP 125/1 Current
TS 92
Bottom half
RPR 110
Bottom half
Form 3-133
4 runs · 1 win · 3 places
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Novice winner whose rallying third of six in Listed race here (1m2f, good) in April suggested that longer trips would suit; tried 11.6f in the Lingfield Derby Trial (good to firm) and recorded his highest rating, but Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance were just over 6l ahead of him; major work to do.

  • Key strength SR rating 86
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Bay Of Brilliance silks Bay Of Brilliance

3.0 Fox's conviction
SR 110 AI rating
SP 14/1 Current
Jockey
Hector Crouch
Trainer
Ralph Beckett
TS 101
Bottom half
RPR 121
Top half
Form 511-2
4 runs · 2 wins · 1 place
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Half-brother to smart Flat and hurdle winner Absurde; odds-on winner of a maiden at Goodwood (1m2f, soft) and novice at Redcar (1m1f, good to soft; made all) on last two starts as 2yo; pushed Maltese Cross all the way in Lingfield Derby Trial (11.6f, good to firm) and could improve on that first-time-out display; more to do but he's heading the right way.

  • Key strength SR rating 110
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Benvenuto Cellini silks Benvenuto Cellini

4.0 Fox's conviction
SR 123 AI rating
SP 2/1 Current
▼ Steamer — shortened from 2/1 → 32/17
Jockey
Ryan Moore
Trainer
A P O'Brien
TS 122
Top 25%
RPR 127
Top 25%
Form 2113-1
5 runs · 3 wins · 2 places
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Frankel colt who was dominant in a maiden last July, a Group 2 at Leopardstown (1m) in September and Group 3 Chester Vase (12.5f, good) one month ago; his free-flowing, long-striding action was seen to good effect in those races, but not on heavy ground when third in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster (1m) in October; soft ground would also introduce something for him to prove but otherwise he brings strength of stamina and among the best form; if the ground is okay, a bold show looks assured.

  • Key strength SR rating 123
  • Expected improvement High
  • Track suitability Likely
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Christmas Day silks Christmas Day

2.0 Fox's conviction
SR 94 AI rating
SP 12/1 Current
▼ Steamer — shortened from 16/1 → 11/1
Jockey
Ronan Whelan
Trainer
A P O'Brien
TS 106
Top 25%
RPR 121
Top half
Form 511-13
5 runs · 3 wins · 1 place
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Maiden success was on heavy going; Group 3 Ballysax at Leopardstown (1m2f, good to yielding) on April reappearance made it three wins in a row and his Dante third at York (10.2f, good) next time was at least as good on form; while lacking anything like the same dash as winner Item at York, and also unable to get to grips with stablemate Action, he did plug on as if 1m4f could help; it clearly needs to.

  • Key strength SR rating 94
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Item silks Item

4.0 Fox's conviction
SR 130 AI rating
SP 9/2 Current
▲ Drifter — out from 4/1 → 9/2
Jockey
Colin Keane
Trainer
Andrew Balding
TS 104
Top half
RPR 130
Top 10%
Form 11-1
3 runs · 3 wins · 0 places
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Well on top last September in a maiden at Kempton (7f, AW) and novice at Bath (1m, good to firm); non-runner in Group 1 Futurity due to heavy going; not the easiest to settle when reappearing in Group 2 Dante at York (10.2f, good; 11-2) last month but he mastered front-running Action in the last half furlong to win it well, putting Christmas Day in the shade as well; settling a bit better (fine as 2yo) would cement claims for 1m4f but this son of Frankel won going away and brings clear potential, plus leading form and an unbeaten record.

  • Key strength SR rating 130
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Likely
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

James J Braddock silks James J Braddock

5.0 Fox's conviction
SR 115 AI rating
SP 9/1 Current
▼ Steamer — shortened from 10/1 → 9/1
TS 102
Top half
RPR 121
Top half
Form 21-51
4 runs · 2 wins · 1 place
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Second start as 2yo was a 6l win in Curragh maiden (1m, heavy); never able to challenge on return in the Group 3 Ballysax won by Christmas Day and couldn't have left it any later in the Derby Trial back over Leopardstown's 1m2f (good) four weeks ago, but upstaging Pierre Bonnard so dramatically in the latter reinforces the feeling that 1m4f will suit him well; his sire's sole Group 1 win was at this trip; each-way player.

  • Key strength SR rating 115
  • Expected improvement High
  • Track suitability Likely
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Maltese Cross silks Maltese Cross

3.0 Fox's conviction
SR 116 AI rating
SP 9/1 Current
▼ Steamer — shortened from 9/1 → 17/2
Jockey
Tom Marquand
Trainer
William Haggas
TS 105
Top half
RPR 122
Top half
Form 21-11
4 runs · 3 wins · 1 place
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Debut was on soft; all four of his races were tight finishes and he won the last three; pulled it out of the fire against useful rivals in a valuable novice event at Newbury (1m2f, good) and narrowly maintained an advantage over Bay Of Brilliance as the pair drew clear in a ding-dong battle for the Lingfield Derby Trial (11.6f, good to firm) four weeks ago; his pedigree is all about 1m4f, including with his sire and dam's sire both Derby winners, and he also shapes as if every yard today will suit; needs to pull out more again but has to be in each-way calculations.

  • Key strength SR rating 116
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Pierre Bonnard silks Pierre Bonnard

3.0 Fox's conviction
SR 112 AI rating
SP 15/2 Current
▲ Drifter — out from 6/1 → 15/2
Trainer
A P O'Brien
TS 103
Top half
RPR 122
Top half
Form 111-72
5 runs · 3 wins · 1 place
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Asserted late on to finish firmly on top last October in a Group 3 at Newmarket (good to firm) and Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud (very soft) and they were over 1m2f; 3yo campaign got off to a muted start but he briefly hit the front in Derby Trial at Leopardstown before James J Braddock swooped and Aidan O'Brien has stressed that he went gently with him at home until after that race; his sire and dam's sire were Derby winners (dam won 1m2f Group 1 Nassau) and he now moves up from 1m2f; he looked every inch a serious Derby contender last term and that's probably still the impression to go with.

  • Key strength SR rating 112
  • Expected improvement Medium
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2 · P

Poker silks Poker

4.0 Fox's conviction
SR 68 AI rating
SP 150/1 Current
▼ Steamer — shortened from 150/1 → 125/1
Jockey
Rowan Scott
Trainer
K R Burke
TS 93
Bottom half
RPR 92
Bottom half
Form 62-2
3 runs · 0 wins · 2 places
Fox's Verdict Confidence: MEDIUM-HIGH

Having fetched 4,300,000gns in 2024, he is the most expensive yearling colt ever sold at auction in Europe; by Wootton Bassett out of a sister to Oaks winner Was; on the other hand, he was left nearly 9l behind by Bay Of Brilliance at Redcar (1m1f, good to soft) in October and sported cheekpieces at 10-1 when a front-running second of four to a stablemate in Haydock novice (1m4f, good to firm) in April; tenacious in the latter but the dream was once of so much more.

  • Key strength Form figures encouraging
  • Expected improvement High
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
3YO · 9-2

Rebel Rocker silks Rebel Rocker

3.0 Fox's conviction
SR 80 AI rating
SP 66/1 Current
▼ Steamer — shortened from 100/1 → 50/1
Jockey
Rob Hornby
Trainer
Faye Bramley
TS 95
Bottom half
RPR 111
Bottom half
Form 1-2
2 runs · 1 win · 1 place
Fox's Verdict Confidence: HIGH

Strong late on to grab a maiden at Kempton (1m, AW) in November and came from last to second in the six-runner Listed Trial here (1m2f, good; 33-1) in April; hopes for the latter form seem to have been punctured and although he looks capable of better and shapes as if 1m4f will suit him well, 1m4f in something other than the Derby would seem much more realistic.

  • Key strength Form figures encouraging
  • Expected improvement Low
  • Track suitability Unclear
  • AI win chance 99%
Stalls & Surface

The grid at a glance.

Saddle-cloth numbers below — tap any stall to jump straight to the horse's capsule.

The Fox's Verdict

Race-day call.

Joseph O'Brien arrives at Epsom with a genuine opportunity to complete a remarkable Oaks and Derby double, with James J Braddock emerging as his standout Classic hope. The colt has been a long-term favourite of the site's AI models, which continue to highlight his blend of progressive form, tactical speed and suitability for Epsom's unique demands. Item commands enormous respect as the proven class act of the field, bringing the strongest ratings profile and a commanding Dante Stakes victory, although his stamina will face its sternest examination yet over the Derby trip. Benvenuto Cellini provides the benchmark for consistency and stamina after his authoritative Chester Vase success, carrying the formidable credentials of a leading Derby stable. At much bigger odds, Poker 200/1 is the fascinating outsider; the €4 million yearling has yet to fully deliver on his immense reputation, but the underlying data suggests he is capable of significantly outperforming market expectations and could be the one staying on strongly when the race begins in earnest.

The Fox's Ticket

  1. James J Braddock 2pts win 8/1

Suggested staking. Please gamble responsibly — 18+ only, BeGambleAware.org.

The Honest Record

We publish our score.

Every Pin gets a verdict. Every verdict gets logged. The Pack keeps tabs — see how Mr Fox is stacking up.

This week

Cubs vs Fox

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Mr Fox's call here

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