Sly Man's ACCA — Saturday 3 October 2026

Combined price 43,106/1 ✓ 4× minimum Target: 10,001/1

Chance of all six · Confidence 1 in 3,600 LOW

Shape · Stability 4 Anchor · 2 Core · 0 Booster Steady · 5 of 6 legs shared with runner-up 4 courses · 6 races

Long shot. At least one leg is Speculative. Chase odds, not conviction -- horse racing's unpredictability factor is baked in.

1 ANCHOR BET ⚠ THIN SIGNAL 4/1

15:40 Gowran Park

Shadow Paddy

Anchor at 4/1. Model probability 28% against market 20% -- +7.6pp edge.

2 CORE BET ⚠ THIN SIGNAL 13/2

15:50 Newmarket

Tryst

Core at 13/2. Model probability 22% against market 13% -- +9.1pp edge.

3 ANCHOR BET ⚠ THIN SIGNAL 9/2

15:55 Redcar

Valvano

Anchor at 9/2. Model probability 25% against market 18% -- +6.9pp edge.

4 ANCHOR BET ⚠ THIN SIGNAL 9/2

16:35 Redcar

Welbury

Anchor at 9/2. Model probability 28% against market 18% -- +9.4pp edge.

5 ANCHOR BET 3/1

19:00 Southwell (AW)

Imperial Ballet

Anchor at 3/1. Pick Winner rates it 37%, well clear of its next-best rival.

6 CORE BET ⚠ THIN SIGNAL 17/2

20:00 Southwell (AW)

Guernsey Angel

Core at 17/2. Model probability 20% against market 11% -- +9.6pp edge.

Break it down

Six legs generate 63 combinations — a Lucky 63. Edit any leg's odds or the stake per line and every payout below recomputes.

Stake per line £

Total outlay £63.00 63 combinations

Odds — edit any leg

1 Shadow Paddy / decimal —

2 Tryst / decimal —

3 Valvano / decimal —

4 Welbury / decimal —

5 Imperial Ballet / decimal —

6 Guernsey Angel / decimal —

Returns include stake.

Singles 6 lines Outlay £— If all 6 land —
Doubles 15 lines Outlay £— If all 6 land —
Trebles 20 lines Outlay £— If all 6 land —
Four-folds 15 lines Outlay £— If all 6 land —
Five-folds 6 lines Outlay £— If all 6 land —
Six-fold 1 line Outlay £— If all 6 land —

If every leg lands, all 63 lines pay £—

A calculator, not advice. Six-leg accumulators are variance-dominated at any edge — see the primer.

Why these six?

The optimiser searched today's Pick Winner selections for the six most likely to win that still multiply to at least 10,001/1. Result: 43,106/1 -- a 1 in 3,600 chance of all six. Split 4 anchors, 2 cores.