Nabati The Right Call At Doncaster
Charlie Appleby's unbeaten juvenile ticks every box that matters
The Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes is the most straightforward Listed race on this Saturday card, and not because the field is weak — it isn't — but because one horse has separated himself from it with a clarity the data makes hard to ignore. Nabati arrives at Doncaster off a 121 form line, two of those three wins coming at odds-on, the third at 3/1 in a contest the market judged competitive. His SR of 115 sits 26 points clear of the next most credible rival, Rock Montreal at 87, and 16 points clear of Forbidden Fire at 89. The deterministic model scores him 6.75 — the only horse to clear 6.5. Charlie Appleby's yard is running at a 35% strike rate over the last 14 days. William Buick, who doesn't take bookings lightly, is in the saddle. This is a horse being aimed squarely at a prize his connections believe he's ready for.
The broader field is populated by horses with one win on their card — Rock Montreal, Forbidden Fire, Varzi — all stepping up sharply in class after a single success. Rock Montreal is drifting from 2/5 to 7/4, which in a race this small tells a story the market doesn't need to shout. Varzi is steaming in at 12/1 but carries an SR of 84 and two runs against him, not enough foundation for a Listed field. The seven-furlong trip at Doncaster and good-to-soft ground complete the picture — the distance is flagged as a positive fit for Nabati, and nothing in the weights disrupts his advantage. Nabati wins this.
The Shape of the Race
With Rock Montreal — a front-runner by nature off a 2/5 winning debut — likely to try to dictate, and Varzi having led when winning last time out, there is scope for a genuine early gallop here. That suits Nabati, who has shown the ability to sit just off the pace and quicken. Forbidden Fire and Minkaas are likely to track the speed. If Rock Montreal burns off his own petrol trying to hold a lead into Doncaster's straight, the horse with the deepest form and sharpest finishing kick — Nabati — is ideally positioned to collar the leader in the final furlong.
The Storylines
-
Appleby yard firing at 35% Charlie Appleby's operation sits at 6 wins from 17 runners in the last 14 days — a 35% strike rate that demands respect when he runs a horse of Nabati's calibre.
-
Rock Montreal drifting hard Rock Montreal has drifted from his debut SP of 2/5 out to 7/4 today, a significant market move against a horse with only one public run to his name.
-
Buick takes the ride William Buick, operating at a 25% career strike rate, rarely commits to rides in Listed company without strong stable confidence behind the selection.
How it Finishes
LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.
Nabati
SR 115, a 35% hot yard, William Buick booked, and the deterministic model's clear top score of 6.75. The form string 121 at this age is a standout credential in this field.
Forbidden Fire
SR 89, Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate, and a Balding yard running at 19%. A winner on debut who could take second behind the class act.
Rock Montreal
SR 87, a debut win at 2/5 suggests genuine ability, but the drift to 7/4 raises questions and the step to Listed grade off one run is a big ask.
Varzi
Steaming in at 12/1 with an SR of 84 and a Karl Burke yard at 26% — the market is finding him, but SR gap to the favourite is too wide to bridge.
Mr Fox has Nabati at 6/4 in his notebook and on this occasion the data puts me firmly in the same camp. The SR advantage of 115 over a field where nothing else clears 90 is decisive, Appleby's yard is the hottest operation on the turf right now at 35% over 14 days, and Buick's presence removes any lingering doubt about stable confidence. I am taking 11/8 — an odds compression from Mr Fox's quoted 6/4, so move quickly if the price holds — and playing this as a win bet. Conviction band is high. The only credible threat is Forbidden Fire if the race unfolds badly for Nabati, but the pace scenario actually sets up in his favour. One unit win at 11/8.