LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Awaiting result 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Felicitas
7/2Best available combination of speed signals, positive distance fit, unpenalised weight, and the strongest hot-yard backing in the field at 29% strike rate. Walker does not miss at…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
I'm The One
9/2Three wins from three starts is impossible to ignore — the class rise is the question, not the ability. Likely runs into the frame at 9/2.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Zgharta
16/1A 10lb weight drop plus a steaming market move and Balding at 26% makes Zgharta the most compelling each-way case in the field at 16/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Revoir
6/1Beckett at 28% and a 5lb weight drop off consistent placed form; the drift to 6/1 is a concern, but distance fit is confirmed positive and she won't be far away.
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Awaiting result 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Coul Angel
10/3Model leader at 6.71, back-to-back wins, 6lb weight relief, and a soft-ground pace collapse set up perfectly for her progressive late run.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Zen Diva
9/1Form of 110112 is formidable and Beckett's 28% yard strike rate makes her the principal danger; Rossa Ryan will keep her competitive throughout.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Copacabana Sands
10/1Oisin Murphy booked at 22% career strike rate, Balding yard hot at 26%, and a going-fit positive flag; a 55-day break could sharpen rather than blunt.
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4Predicted 4th
Advertised
6/1The market violence from 28/1 to 6/1 is too loud to ignore for a place slot, even with Tuer's 0% yard form; William Buick at 25% makes this plunge credible.
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Awaiting result 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
My Boo Boo
7/4Steaming market mover, winning last-time-out form, Oisin Murphy aboard a hot yard's runner — she sets her own pace against weak front-runner opposition and is not stopping on soft…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Resemblance
5/2Ryan Moore's 24% strike rate keeps her honest at 5/2, but three odds-on failures say she runs into second, not through it; the 9lb weight drop softens the blow.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Bladey Lady
5/1Form string 711811 is the most consistent winning record in the field beyond My Boo Boo; a 7lb weight drop offsets the class rise and she closes ground on soft.
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4Predicted 4th
Ongombo
6/1Class drop of two grades is a genuine positive and the model rates her second overall for that reason; at 6/1 she offers each-way interest if the front trio disappoint.
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Awaiting result 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Cala Vadella
3/10The only runner in the field with a form figure, a debut second at this exact class level, and Murphy at 22% strike rate — the case is straightforward in a field this thin.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Jimjamjuney
14/1The model's top pick on the back of a +2.2 market-move score and a Barron yard firing at 22% — debutants are unknowns but this stable doesn't steam without intent.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Gattino
12/1A 50/1 debut runner trimmed to 12/1 with 5lb more to carry suggests something has been seen at home; John Butler's 16% yard form is the corroborating thread.
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4Predicted 4th
Steel At Heart
11/1No strong positives in the model, drifting in the market, but Jason Hart at 14% keeps this debutant alive for a place in a small field on soft ground.
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Awaiting result 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Intrusively
11/1Three-run steamer pattern culminates today; Appleby's yard at 12%, last run a marked uptick, and a soft-ground Doncaster test over seven-plus furlongs suits a hold-up closer findi…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Golden Strike
11/2Model's third-ranked horse, form reads 753241 with the most recent run a win; going fit positive, class unchanged, and the Fahey operation sends these out ready.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
On The River
5/1Model's top pick on speed and class drop, going fit confirmed positive — but the cold trainer and unresolved form trend keep her off the top slot; she places without winning.
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4Predicted 4th
Irish Nectar
17/2Hot trainer at 22% and a recent win at 4/9 screams ability, but drifting market and a class rise argue the handicapper has caught up with her quickly.
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Awaiting result 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Feel The Need
4/1Herrington's yard at 22% over 14 days is the standout stable signal in the race; Feel The Need's form ends in a second at identical class, and the weight is manageable at 9-9.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Charlie Mason
5/1The model's top-ranked runner on form and speed, but +9lb and a 3% trainer strike rate are genuine drags — place money only.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Ghisa
5/1Class drop is a legitimate positive and the form line trends forward, but absorbing +10lb limits upside; each-way money at 5/1 is fair.
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4Predicted 4th
Stanage
5/1Easterby yard at 21% mirrors the Herrington signal, and Stanage sheds 3lb; the distance flag is a minus but the speed driver is real at 22/1 to 9/2 recent SPs.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Here Comes Georgie
2/1Model leader at 6.03, strongest market move in the field (+0.8), Skelton yard at 19%, won last time and drops 9lb. All signals point the same way.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Montregard
9/2Harry Cobden at 22% and a going fit make him the most credible danger, though Lacey's cold yard (9%) and unproven class record keep him behind Here Comes Georgie.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Dartmoor Pirate
10/1The second-strongest market move in the field (+1.1 driver) with Sean Bowen at 24% — the market is saying something worth respecting at 10/1 each-way.
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4Predicted 4th
Konfusion
9/1Distance and going both fit, and the form before the layoff was strong, but 209 days off a 20/1 last SP in a Class 1 caps expectations at a place at best.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Mirabad
13/8Distance and going fit confirmed, Harry Skelton (27% strike rate) in the saddle, same class as last run. The volatile SP history resolves bullishly today at 13/8.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
JPR One
3/1Model leader at 6.20, Tizzard yard running hot at 28%, recent win on a 14-day turnaround. Topweight 11-12 is the ceiling; Mirabad's weight-for-age edge costs him the race.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Stencil
7/1Steaming in at 7/1 despite 239 days off; Tom George's yard at 20% and Harry Cobden (22%) give this comeback run more credibility than the layoff alone suggests.
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4Predicted 4th
Daytime Dreaming
9/1Second in the model at 5.89 on market move and form, but Tom Ellis at 0-from-18 over 14 days is a cold-water statistic that pushes this down to a place squeak at best.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Royal Infantry
7/4Harry Skelton at 27% and a Dan Skelton yard at 19% over 14 days are the two strongest corroborating signals in this field; the horse arrives fresh off a win 17 days ago and handle…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Klimt Madrik
evnMarket confidence is real and form is solid, but Brogan at 11% is a liability at this level when pressed by a Skelton-ridden rival; second is the likeliest outcome.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Intosomethinggood
4/1The pulled-up on the form card and a trainer strike rate of just 10% make this the least reliable of the three despite the model's top billing.
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4Predicted 4th
Intosomethinggood
4/1With only three runners there is no fourth finisher — Intosomethinggood is the horse most at risk of failing to complete given the 'P' on its card.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Lyssenko
15/8Three wins from three, Harry Skelton at 27% strike rate, and a hot Skelton yard at 19% — the market drift is acknowledged but the form line is simply stronger than anything else i…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Dedicated Hero
9/1Sandy Thomson's yard at 25% in 14 days is genuine, the class drop is real, and Twiston-Davies is a competent booking — but the going negative and 6lb weight rise cap his ceiling h…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Star of Guiting
7/1A 17lb weight drop, positive going fit, and a steamer in the market — the class rise is a hurdle but the handicapper has handed him a significant advantage today.
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4Predicted 4th
All In You
15/8Sean Bowen at 24% and an improving form profile give him a place shout, but carrying 11-6 — a massive 26lb more than last time — makes this a brutal ask.
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