LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Blakefell
15/2Sole steamer in the race, SP compression from 4/1 to 6/4 across last three starts, model's top-ranked horse at 5.96 — the market and the model are aligned and I follow both.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Sailthisshipalone
9/2Going-plus flag on soft, a 331 closing sequence, and Ivan Furtado's yard at 4-32 — she is the horse most likely to run Blakefell to a head.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Jannas Journey
9/2Distance-plus, going-plus, and a 9/2 price that hasn't drifted — Lauren Young's 5yo gets into the money off 9-9 in a race without a dominant pace.
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4Predicted 4th
Dwindling Funds
6/1Jim Goldie's second string carries distance-plus and going-plus like stablemate Jannas Journey, but Paul Mulrennan's booking at 6/1 drifting is the only hesitation.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Amir Lehbab
6/4Top of the deterministic model at 5.58, Balding at 21% yard form, Murphy at 22% strike rate — the only runner with two credible starts and a placed effort against an overwhelmingl…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Golden Souk
4/1K.R. Burke debutants command respect and the 4/1 price reflects real yard reputation; second in the model at 5.10 with trainer-strike the key positive driver.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rogue Constelation
11/4Edward Bethell's yard at 21% is a genuine hot-stable signal, but the drift from a shorter price today introduces doubt — third best in this field on balance.
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4Predicted 4th
Gold Key
9/2The model scores Gold Key at 3.96 with a form positive, but the heavy drift and Kevin Ryan's yard at just 7% over 14 days cap the ceiling here.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Fine Interview
17/2GF:+ flag on soft ground, steamed to 17/2, Doyle at 21% strike rate, and a hot 25% yard. The going filter alone eliminates several market rivals.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Binhareer
7/2The model ranks him third on speed and class-change positives; Haggas yard is 24% over 14 days and Marquand at 16% provides a reliable pilot at 7/2.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Far Above Dream
6/1The biggest market mover in the field alongside Fine Interview, steaming to 6/1 from 28/1; D:+ and GF:? leave soft ground unproven but the money is loud and the form string shows …
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4Predicted 4th
Dance In The Storm
13/2Oisin Murphy's 22% strike rate is the second-best jockey number in the field; Balding yard at 21% is hot and the 9-1 weight is manageable in this context.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Ruby Moon
11/2Model's top-ranked runner at 6.13, steamering market move confirmed by the form signal, racing at a yard that — while not hot — isn't the coldest in the field. The 11/2 is fair at…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Dark Issue
11/4Second in the model at 5.50 with the strongest speed driver outside the top-ranked pair; Tom Marquand's 16% career strike rate gives the runner a reliable pilot even from a flat-f…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Starburster
12/1Richard Spencer's yard is the only genuinely hot operation here at 21% over 14 days; a three-class rise is ambitious but the form (4-1) reads like a horse going the right way.
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4Predicted 4th
Etonnante
7/1Lone front-runner with a 5lb pull and a recent win — she dictates tempo and will be hard to pass — but the drift to 7/1 from 1/2F is an uncomfortable signal to dismiss entirely.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Deep Havana
13/2Model top-scorer at 6.23, lone credible front-runner on today's pace map, positive distance fit, Doyle booked, yard 25% in past 14 days — every signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Trilby
10/1Form of 310412 includes a recent second, going flag positive on soft, and Sam England's 31% strike rate makes this yard the hottest in the field — Tom Marquand will be hunting dow…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Havana Blue
11/1Form of 422211 is outstanding and the horse clearly knows how to finish — the soft-ground minus flag is the one concern that stops me going further up the forecast.
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4Predicted 4th
Rapper's Delight
8/1Richard Spencer's yard at 21% and the form of 992288 trends upward on the numbers — an 8/1 price for a horse creeping into the frame each time is the value outlier here.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Ice Max
3/1Leads the deterministic model on speed and going signals; Burke's yard in form at 18% over 14 days, and 106-day freshness is a positive not a negative in a soft-ground Listed test.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Fast Tracker
3/1Distance fit confirmed, speed second-ranked, and James Doyle at 21% makes him the most dangerous rival — cold trainer yard is the one note of caution.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Sea Scout
6/1Distance fit positive, improving SP arc (22/1 → 11/1 → 7/1) signals a horse finding its level; Crisford yard at 20% over 14 days is a genuine supporting signal.
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4Predicted 4th
Grey Cuban
10/1Ran just seven days ago and carries freshness as a pacemaker role; going fit neutral and speed score is the model's weakest among the first five, limiting winning claims.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
McMurray
4/1Form string 2111-1 at consistently short prices, distance fit positive, and Boughey at 24% in the 14-day window is the strongest corroborating yard signal in the race. The 135-day…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Spoken Truth
9/2Top of the model, genuine market move, going fit confirmed, Tudhope at 18%. If McMurray returns below peak, Spoken Truth — the winner last time at 6/4F — collects.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Theoryofeverything
15/2A 12lb drop and lone front-runner status on a flat Ayr mile gives him every chance to control tempo and steal a place if the hold-up horses fail to close.
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4Predicted 4th
English Oak
11/1James Doyle at 21% is the second-best jockey strike rate in the field, and Hamad Al Jehani's yard runs at 25% — a hot combination at 11/1 despite the drifting price.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Cascade Hall
5/6Top of the deterministic model, +0.8 market move driver, won last time out at same class, and Goldie's yard is running at 16% in the past fortnight. The evidence lines up cleanly.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Arch Enemy
8/1Second in the model at 5.19 with speed and form as positive drivers; Patrick Magee's yard is running at 29% and the 10-1 weight is manageable despite the Δ+6 swing.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Ebony Maw
12/1Going fit is listed as a positive (GF:+), the form string shows a 133 sequence in recent starts, and Ewan Whillans is at 20% from just five runners — a small but live yard.
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4Predicted 4th
Just Dottie
12/1Distance fit is a genuine positive (D:+) and the 15lb weight drop is substantial; the trainer's 7% strike rate is a drag, but the profile fits a place at 12/1.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Ice Cube
9/2Form string ending 4-1 in the last two completed runs, Spencer's yard at 24% strike rate, and a manageable 2lb weight rise. The evidence stacks cleanly.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Up The Jazz
6/1SP compression from 33/1 to 3/1 signals genuine improvement and the model ranks it first; cold trainer stats and a struggling jockey keep it off the top spot.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Filly Eilish
13/2Form reading 6-6-1-5-5 with two recent near-misses, Jim Goldie's yard solid at 16%, and a manageable weight at 9-10 makes her the each-way play.
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4Predicted 4th
Stoic Poet
10/1Model's third-ranked runner with the strongest speed score in the field; 41 days off and a cold trainer yard cap the ceiling but the price of 10/1 reflects genuine upside.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Motawaared
7/2Three placed efforts in last three runs, Goldie yard at 16%, Mulrennan booked, and 9-4 is workable weight. The form progression is the most convincing trajectory in this field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Glorious Kitty
5/1Model's top pick at 5.56, speed driver leads the field, twice placed in last six — but the 3lb penalty and a last run of six temper the case to second.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Royale Union
17/2Burke at 23% strike rate over 14 days is the standout trainer angle; class drop plus a 3yo getting weight all around makes this an each-way proposition at 17/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Tap Dancer
10/1The only steamer in the field, shortening from 14/1 to 10/1 — market intelligence on soft ground at this class deserves a place ticket at 10/1.
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