LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
-
Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
French Affair
10/18lb lighter, two consecutive wins, Bowen booked at 24% strike rate; hold-up style ideally suited to a soft, paceless six furlongs at Ayr.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Woven
17/2Model's top pick and the market agrees — steaming from further out, 3lb drop, Connor Beasley riding; the going fitness query (~) is the only credible objection.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Wild Clary
15/2Distance fit is positive (+), speed scores are competitive, and PJ McDonald keeps the ride despite a class rise; form string (423144) shows consistent placing.
-
4Predicted 4th
Francisco's Piece
12/1Going fit is positive (+), form score is credible, and 12/1 represents value if the hold-up shape of the race delivers a close-bunched finish.
-
-
Winner placed 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Beautiful Diamond
5/4Model-top at 6.85, hottest market move in the field, 7lb weight drop, distance and going both flagged positive, Burke yard at 23% — every primary signal converges on her.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Fluorescence
6/18lb lighter, Bethell yard at 20%, ran to a 2/1F price recently — 6/1 looks too big for a filly with this profile stepping up in class with these conditions.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Lady Youmzain
9/1Form of 1-132 with a win and two placings in her last four runs; model ranks her third, distance fits, and she has pace to be competitive from the front.
-
4Predicted 4th
Novamay
22/1Steaming from 22/1 earlier in the day with a 5lb weight drop — market money on an outsider in Listed company deserves respect, even if the class rise is a concern.
-
-
Winner placed 3/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Dubai Champion
3/1Last-run winner with +form and +going signals from a 14%-striking yard; the model undervalues trainer form here. At 3/1 he is the sharpest-prepared horse in the field.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Hickory Lad
11/8Top of the model at 5.75 and deepest form record in the race, but the 0% Makin yard and hold-up style on soft ground creates the gap Dubai Champion exploits.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Mussab
7/2Last-run winner at 1/4F and a +speed driver in the model; the class rise and market drift to 7/2 give caution but a sharp juvenile improving through the grades.
-
4Predicted 4th
Dance A Jig
13/2Ralph Beckett at 15% and a +speed positive in the model; the 13/2 drift is a mild concern but form including a 2/1J run suggests latent ability at this level.
-
-
Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Trumpety Trump
11/2Top of the deterministic ranking with a market move backing the form; 3-4-2-1 sequence, distance positive, soft ground positive, Goldie yard at 16% — all signals aligned.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Tropical Crown
17/2Karl Burke's yard at 23% is the strongest trainer signal in the race; form reads 1-5 and a class drop of one level makes this the most credible threat to the winner.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Dontlookanyfurther
11/8The ability is obvious — a 6-1-1 sequence does not lie — but the raceday drift and a yard at 10% means slot one is wrong; third, picking up prize money, is the honest call.
-
4Predicted 4th
Furturra
16/1Second steamer in the field and the model ranks it third; a class rise of two levels is the caveat, but a +0.8 market move and the Easterby yard's volume warrant respect at 16/1.
-
-
Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Diplomata
5/4Won last time out, drops a class, Haggas yard at 23%, Marquand booked — every signal points the same direction. The 5/4 is fair price on merit.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Motown Filly
11/2Richard Spencer's yard is also running hot at 24%, and Motown Filly's 272 form shows consistent placed efforts — a live threat to frame money.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Necromancer
11/2A horse that won last time at 7/2 having been backed from 10/1, Necromancer drops 1lb and stays at the same class — quietly consistent at a decent each-way price.
-
4Predicted 4th
Global Success
20/1The model's top pick on market move and class drop has the profile of a placegetter rather than a winner — low trainer strike rate and a form string that peaks at third.
-
-
Winner placed 1/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Dandy Magic
6/1Top-scored by the deterministic model, steaming market move, SR 82 at 9-5 with Goldie's yard firing at 16% — every primary signal points here.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Miraculous
17/2SR 81, third in the model ranking, 8lb weight relief on last run, and Easterby's yard ticking over at 15% — the most credible danger to the winner.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Sixtygeesbaby
8/1Down 4lb on last run, SR 78, form shows 5-1-3 sequences and the horse has been running consistently at favourites' prices recently — place claims are real at 8/1.
-
4Predicted 4th
Mo of Cairo
11/1The market move is genuine and the class drop of two is a positive, but a 22lb weight rise and SR 72 limit expectations to a place at best.
-
-
Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Mighty Magnus
9/2Field-best SR of 85, the day's clearest steamer, and the only runner combining a ratings edge with positive market movement. The pace shape suits a prominent racer.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Maharajas Express
4/1SR 84 is genuine class, and his form positives are the strongest in the model after Magnus — but the hold-up style in a potentially slow-run five furlongs costs him the verdict.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Tanjen
7/1The second steamer on the card at 7/1, Tim Easterby's yard running at 15% and Tanjen's form string of 775134 shows a recent win — each-way claims are real at this price.
-
4Predicted 4th
U S S Charleston
9/1Another steamer and an SR of 74 makes him live; recent SPs of 4/1, 2/1, 3/1 show this horse has been well-fancied before and knows how to run a race.
-
-
Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Winged Messenger
11/2Market move of +0.8 is the strongest model driver in the field; 4lb weight relief and a speed-positive profile suit a tactical pace. SR 80 is sufficient in this compressed field.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Tiva
7/2Highest SR in the field at 85, drop of 2lb, and solid recent form string — the drift to 7/2 is a concern but the raw rating keeps him in the mix for a place.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Fantasy Master
13/2SR 80 matches Winged Messenger and the class drop is a genuine positive driver, but +10lb and a cold Cowell yard cap his ceiling at third.
-
4Predicted 4th
Kinetic Force
6/1Third in the deterministic model on speed and form, but 105 days absent, a going minus, and +7lb off a break make the winning case fragile — place money only.
-
-
Awaiting result 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Fantasy World
10/1Top of the deterministic model, strongest combined market-move and speed drivers, class drop of one level, Balding at 22% and Murphy in the saddle. The price is the opportunity, n…
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Valedictory
3/1Distance fit, going fit, Gosden at 28% — three strong signals align. The unexplained drift last time and Havlin's 15% rate are the only things keeping this off the top.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Ernst Blofeld
13/2Speed driver and model rank third, a 2lb weight drop helps, and Hamad Al Jehani's yard is hitting 20% — sufficient each-way appeal at the price.
-
4Predicted 4th
Boatswain
8/1Simon and Ed Crisford at 19% over 14 days is a credible trainer angle, and the 1lb weight reduction keeps Boatswain competitive at the bottom of the weights.
-
-
Winner placed 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Forty Years On
7/4Form string 112-11 at 7f on good ground with distance fit confirmed; every available signal — going, distance, market confidence — points to this filly. The class rise is the sole…
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Copacabana Sands
20/1The Δsteamer in a 20-runner Group 3 with Oisin Murphy booked and Balding firing at 22% is the clearest danger signal in the race; earlier form SPs of 4/1 and 10/3 suggest a return…
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
The Prettiest Star
13/2Progressive form string 12-405 with a price that has already collapsed from 16/1 to 13/2; Callum Rodriguez at 19% is not a jockey booking you ignore lightly in Group 3 company.
-
4Predicted 4th
Planet Seeker
12/1Distance fit D:+ and Ralph Beckett's yard at 21% in 14 days; the SPs of 2/1 and 13/2 bookend a horse who showed early ability and may be returning to form at 12/1.
-