LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Velvet Rhythm
10/3SR 90, 10lb weight drop, distance and going both positive, form string 114811 is the most consistent in the race — the conditions are tailored to her.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
All Moonshine
9/4SR 96 is the field's best and her form shows real quality, but a 20lb weight rise and a drifting market cap her chance at second.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Lightning Polka
4/1Steaming into 4/1 and Ed Walker's yard is in 20% form — SR 87 is workmanlike but the market move and trainer heat keep her in the frame.
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4Predicted 4th
Brisk Symphony
8/1Six pounds off her back and going fit flagged positive — she's the value outsider at 8/1 with the most convincing improving SP trend in the field.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Satellite Of Love
7/2SR 156 is the class of this field, sole winner among the experienced runners, and a 1lb weight reduction to 9-6 barely registers as a concern. Cox's yard at 18% strike rate over 1…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Agrippa
3/1The strongest market signal in the race — steaming from 16/5 to 3/1 — allied with SR 154 and a 5lb weight drop. Hannon's 6-from-48 yard form gives the confidence some basis.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
California School
17/2SR 144 and Roger Varian's 23% 14-day strike rate — the sharpest trainer in the field — give this debut runner the best each-way credentials among the unraced contingent.
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4Predicted 4th
Untouchable
13/2SR 148 is second only to Satellite Of Love and Agrippa; Kevin Philippart De Foy's yard runs at 25% over 14 days, the highest in the field. Debut risk is the only caveat.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Miss Scott
10/11Gosden yard at 50% in 14 days, steaming market from 5/4 to 10/11, and a solid 1-2 form line. The model's top pick at 5.81 for precisely these reasons — no argument here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Manaar
5/4SR 156 is the highest in the field and her sole run produced a win, but the drift to 5/4, a 6lb weight rise, and a two-class jump temper confidence to second place.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Aura Champagne
17/2SR 147 is legitimately competitive and she drops 6lb against Manaar, but 302 days between runs with no prep race makes place-level the realistic ceiling today.
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4Predicted 4th
Aunt Roberta
33/1George Scott's yard is running at 29% and Aunt Roberta's SR 125 shows some ability, but a form figure of 6 and a 33/1 drift confirm the market sees no realistic threat.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Etienne
4/1SR 154 leads the field, weight of 8-8 gives a 13lb edge over the topweights, market steaming to 4/1, and David Egan at 14% provides the riding quality to match.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Angels Lane
12/1SR 143 off a winning debut and only 8-7 on the back — the ability is unquestionable; the concern is a 7% jockey and a trainer at 1-7 in the past fortnight.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rollthedicebaby
5/1SR 89, steaming in the market, and a winning last run at 4/6 — Richard Hannon's yard has the numbers even at 12% and this one fits the each-way profile at 5/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Zigazig Ah
10/1SR 79, backed from 7/2 into 2/1 on debut then a follow-up win, steaming at 10/1 here — the market has found this filly late and the form of two wins makes her the value outsider.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Symbol Of Honour
4/1Appleby at 26%, Buick booked, SR 108 in a workably weak field — the drift is the only negative, and it's not enough to override the yard's current form.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Soldier's Tree
9/4SR 115 leads the field, weight relief of 2lb, distance fits — the model's top pick is genuine and will not be far away at the finish.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Binhareer
3/1SR 112 matches Song Of The Clyde, distance fits, Haggas sends horses to Newbury in good heart — each-way claims are real at 3/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Song Of The Clyde
5/1Model scores it second, SR 112 is legitimate, but that SPs collapse from 7/4 to 40/1 and back to 5/1 tells a story of inconsistency that keeps it out of the frame.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Shrimp Shady
5/1An 8lb weight drop to 9-3 combined with SR 99 and Balding's 18% yard form is the most compelling cluster of signals in the race. The price at 5/1 looks a mistake.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Ride The Thunder
5/2The Varian yard at 23% is the market's main reason for steaming this into 5/2, and Tom Marquand's booking is never accidental; SR 96 is competitive but the extra weight hurts.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Team Player
11/2SR 99 matches Shrimp Shady and Ewan Whillans is running hot at 20% — the concern is Greg Fairley's 2% career strike rate, which is an uncomfortable stat at this level.
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4Predicted 4th
Baileys Khelstar
9/2Six consecutive placed or winning finishes ('242211') is genuine form, but the two-class rise and the drift in the market suggest the yard and the punters share a reservation.
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Al Zanati
5/2SR 111 leads the field, weight drops 3lb to 8-13, Buick booked at 20% strike rate, Appleby yard at 26% — every material signal points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Oceans Four
11/2SR 115 is the highest in the field and the 7lb weight drop from last run is significant; market drift to 11/2 is concerning but the raw numbers keep him dangerous.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Arabian Light
9/1Charlie Appleby's second string with a hot yard behind him; SR 102 and hold-up style could pick up minor money if the pace is honest.
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4Predicted 4th
Persica
evsEvens favourite but negative flags on both distance and going, a 12% yard, and a form string that consistently yields places rather than wins.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Cape Fear
7/4Top SR at 96, confirmed going fit, 5lb lighter than last run, Oisin Murphy in the saddle at 22% strike rate, and a winning last run. Every signal aligns.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Parisian Scholar
3/1SR 88 and an 8lb weight drop make him the most credible threat; the steamer to 3/1 confirms yard confidence even if he falls just short of Cape Fear's class.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Wonder
13/2SR 81 in third place overall, James Fanshawe's yard is hot at 23% over 14 days, and a 5lb weight reduction gives Wonder an each-way shout at 13/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Melek Alreeh
7/1SR 85 is respectable but a 161-day absence, a 5lb rise, and David Simcock's yard at just 8% make Melek Alreeh a closer-home candidate rather than a winner.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Secret History
10/1SR 87, 6lb lighter than last run, Good to Firm ground a positive fit, distance positive — William Buick doesn't take losing rides in handicaps at this level at this price.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Exposure
11/4Gosden at 50% in 14 days is a warning that cannot be ignored; Ryan Moore at 28% career strike rate keeps Exposure firmly in the danger column despite the short price.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Harlequin Angel
18/1Backed from 50/1 to 18/1, positive going and distance signals, dropped in class, and a Chapple-Hyam yard running at 22% — the market move is too loud to ignore each-way.
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4Predicted 4th
Crimson Spirit
9/2SR 88 leads the field on raw rating but a 10lb weight increase and a drifting market from 4/1 to 9/2 argue the handicapper has found him out this time.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Double Rush
7/1Three straight wins, going and distance fit both positive, the sharpest market move in the race, and Oisin Murphy at 22% in the saddle — the model's top score of 6.85 is earned.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mission Central
6/1SR:123 sits joint-top with Almeraq, the form string reads 10-111, and Ryan Moore at 28% is a serious booking — model second at 6.40 and the weight advantage (9-2 vs 9-8) is real.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Almeraq
11/2SR:125 is the highest in the field and the form string (21F-11) shows class, but the Δdrifter tag and a weight rise of 3lb temper the enthusiasm — each-way claims hold.
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4Predicted 4th
Venetian Sun
4/1SR:125 joint-top and the form string (13-011) shows two recent wins, but the Δdrifter tag and unresolved going and distance fit queries keep this to fourth.
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