LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
-
Winner placed 3/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Ice Max
3/1Leads the deterministic model on speed and going signals; Burke's yard in form at 18% over 14 days, and 106-day freshness is a positive not a negative in a soft-ground Listed test.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Fast Tracker
3/1Distance fit confirmed, speed second-ranked, and James Doyle at 21% makes him the most dangerous rival — cold trainer yard is the one note of caution.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Sea Scout
6/1Distance fit positive, improving SP arc (22/1 → 11/1 → 7/1) signals a horse finding its level; Crisford yard at 20% over 14 days is a genuine supporting signal.
-
4Predicted 4th
Grey Cuban
10/1Ran just seven days ago and carries freshness as a pacemaker role; going fit neutral and speed score is the model's weakest among the first five, limiting winning claims.
-
-
Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
McMurray
4/1Form string 2111-1 at consistently short prices, distance fit positive, and Boughey at 24% in the 14-day window is the strongest corroborating yard signal in the race. The 135-day…
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Spoken Truth
9/2Top of the model, genuine market move, going fit confirmed, Tudhope at 18%. If McMurray returns below peak, Spoken Truth — the winner last time at 6/4F — collects.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Theoryofeverything
15/2A 12lb drop and lone front-runner status on a flat Ayr mile gives him every chance to control tempo and steal a place if the hold-up horses fail to close.
-
4Predicted 4th
English Oak
11/1James Doyle at 21% is the second-best jockey strike rate in the field, and Hamad Al Jehani's yard runs at 25% — a hot combination at 11/1 despite the drifting price.
-
-
Winner placed 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Cascade Hall
5/6Top of the deterministic model, +0.8 market move driver, won last time out at same class, and Goldie's yard is running at 16% in the past fortnight. The evidence lines up cleanly.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Arch Enemy
8/1Second in the model at 5.19 with speed and form as positive drivers; Patrick Magee's yard is running at 29% and the 10-1 weight is manageable despite the Δ+6 swing.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Ebony Maw
12/1Going fit is listed as a positive (GF:+), the form string shows a 133 sequence in recent starts, and Ewan Whillans is at 20% from just five runners — a small but live yard.
-
4Predicted 4th
Just Dottie
12/1Distance fit is a genuine positive (D:+) and the 15lb weight drop is substantial; the trainer's 7% strike rate is a drag, but the profile fits a place at 12/1.
-
-
Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Ice Cube
9/2Form string ending 4-1 in the last two completed runs, Spencer's yard at 24% strike rate, and a manageable 2lb weight rise. The evidence stacks cleanly.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Up The Jazz
6/1SP compression from 33/1 to 3/1 signals genuine improvement and the model ranks it first; cold trainer stats and a struggling jockey keep it off the top spot.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Filly Eilish
13/2Form reading 6-6-1-5-5 with two recent near-misses, Jim Goldie's yard solid at 16%, and a manageable weight at 9-10 makes her the each-way play.
-
4Predicted 4th
Stoic Poet
10/1Model's third-ranked runner with the strongest speed score in the field; 41 days off and a cold trainer yard cap the ceiling but the price of 10/1 reflects genuine upside.
-
-
Winner placed 1/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Motawaared
7/2Three placed efforts in last three runs, Goldie yard at 16%, Mulrennan booked, and 9-4 is workable weight. The form progression is the most convincing trajectory in this field.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Glorious Kitty
5/1Model's top pick at 5.56, speed driver leads the field, twice placed in last six — but the 3lb penalty and a last run of six temper the case to second.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Royale Union
17/2Burke at 23% strike rate over 14 days is the standout trainer angle; class drop plus a 3yo getting weight all around makes this an each-way proposition at 17/2.
-
4Predicted 4th
Tap Dancer
10/1The only steamer in the field, shortening from 14/1 to 10/1 — market intelligence on soft ground at this class deserves a place ticket at 10/1.
-
-
Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
French Affair
10/18lb lighter, two consecutive wins, Bowen booked at 24% strike rate; hold-up style ideally suited to a soft, paceless six furlongs at Ayr.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Woven
17/2Model's top pick and the market agrees — steaming from further out, 3lb drop, Connor Beasley riding; the going fitness query (~) is the only credible objection.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Wild Clary
15/2Distance fit is positive (+), speed scores are competitive, and PJ McDonald keeps the ride despite a class rise; form string (423144) shows consistent placing.
-
4Predicted 4th
Francisco's Piece
12/1Going fit is positive (+), form score is credible, and 12/1 represents value if the hold-up shape of the race delivers a close-bunched finish.
-
-
Winner placed 2/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Beautiful Diamond
5/4Model-top at 6.85, hottest market move in the field, 7lb weight drop, distance and going both flagged positive, Burke yard at 23% — every primary signal converges on her.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Fluorescence
6/18lb lighter, Bethell yard at 20%, ran to a 2/1F price recently — 6/1 looks too big for a filly with this profile stepping up in class with these conditions.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Lady Youmzain
9/1Form of 1-132 with a win and two placings in her last four runs; model ranks her third, distance fits, and she has pace to be competitive from the front.
-
4Predicted 4th
Novamay
22/1Steaming from 22/1 earlier in the day with a 5lb weight drop — market money on an outsider in Listed company deserves respect, even if the class rise is a concern.
-
-
Winner placed 3/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Dubai Champion
3/1Last-run winner with +form and +going signals from a 14%-striking yard; the model undervalues trainer form here. At 3/1 he is the sharpest-prepared horse in the field.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Hickory Lad
11/8Top of the model at 5.75 and deepest form record in the race, but the 0% Makin yard and hold-up style on soft ground creates the gap Dubai Champion exploits.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Mussab
7/2Last-run winner at 1/4F and a +speed driver in the model; the class rise and market drift to 7/2 give caution but a sharp juvenile improving through the grades.
-
4Predicted 4th
Dance A Jig
13/2Ralph Beckett at 15% and a +speed positive in the model; the 13/2 drift is a mild concern but form including a 2/1J run suggests latent ability at this level.
-
-
Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Trumpety Trump
11/2Top of the deterministic ranking with a market move backing the form; 3-4-2-1 sequence, distance positive, soft ground positive, Goldie yard at 16% — all signals aligned.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Tropical Crown
17/2Karl Burke's yard at 23% is the strongest trainer signal in the race; form reads 1-5 and a class drop of one level makes this the most credible threat to the winner.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Dontlookanyfurther
11/8The ability is obvious — a 6-1-1 sequence does not lie — but the raceday drift and a yard at 10% means slot one is wrong; third, picking up prize money, is the honest call.
-
4Predicted 4th
Furturra
16/1Second steamer in the field and the model ranks it third; a class rise of two levels is the caveat, but a +0.8 market move and the Easterby yard's volume warrant respect at 16/1.
-
-
Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
-
🥇Predicted 1st
Diplomata
5/4Won last time out, drops a class, Haggas yard at 23%, Marquand booked — every signal points the same direction. The 5/4 is fair price on merit.
-
🥈Predicted 2nd
Motown Filly
11/2Richard Spencer's yard is also running hot at 24%, and Motown Filly's 272 form shows consistent placed efforts — a live threat to frame money.
-
🥉Predicted 3rd
Necromancer
11/2A horse that won last time at 7/2 having been backed from 10/1, Necromancer drops 1lb and stays at the same class — quietly consistent at a decent each-way price.
-
4Predicted 4th
Global Success
20/1The model's top pick on market move and class drop has the profile of a placegetter rather than a winner — low trainer strike rate and a form string that peaks at third.
-