LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Dandy Magic
6/1Top-scored by the deterministic model, steaming market move, SR 82 at 9-5 with Goldie's yard firing at 16% — every primary signal points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Miraculous
17/2SR 81, third in the model ranking, 8lb weight relief on last run, and Easterby's yard ticking over at 15% — the most credible danger to the winner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Sixtygeesbaby
8/1Down 4lb on last run, SR 78, form shows 5-1-3 sequences and the horse has been running consistently at favourites' prices recently — place claims are real at 8/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Mo of Cairo
11/1The market move is genuine and the class drop of two is a positive, but a 22lb weight rise and SR 72 limit expectations to a place at best.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Mighty Magnus
9/2Field-best SR of 85, the day's clearest steamer, and the only runner combining a ratings edge with positive market movement. The pace shape suits a prominent racer.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Maharajas Express
4/1SR 84 is genuine class, and his form positives are the strongest in the model after Magnus — but the hold-up style in a potentially slow-run five furlongs costs him the verdict.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Tanjen
7/1The second steamer on the card at 7/1, Tim Easterby's yard running at 15% and Tanjen's form string of 775134 shows a recent win — each-way claims are real at this price.
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4Predicted 4th
U S S Charleston
9/1Another steamer and an SR of 74 makes him live; recent SPs of 4/1, 2/1, 3/1 show this horse has been well-fancied before and knows how to run a race.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Winged Messenger
11/2Market move of +0.8 is the strongest model driver in the field; 4lb weight relief and a speed-positive profile suit a tactical pace. SR 80 is sufficient in this compressed field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tiva
7/2Highest SR in the field at 85, drop of 2lb, and solid recent form string — the drift to 7/2 is a concern but the raw rating keeps him in the mix for a place.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Fantasy Master
13/2SR 80 matches Winged Messenger and the class drop is a genuine positive driver, but +10lb and a cold Cowell yard cap his ceiling at third.
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4Predicted 4th
Kinetic Force
6/1Third in the deterministic model on speed and form, but 105 days absent, a going minus, and +7lb off a break make the winning case fragile — place money only.
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Awaiting result 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Fantasy World
10/1Top of the deterministic model, strongest combined market-move and speed drivers, class drop of one level, Balding at 22% and Murphy in the saddle. The price is the opportunity, n…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Valedictory
3/1Distance fit, going fit, Gosden at 28% — three strong signals align. The unexplained drift last time and Havlin's 15% rate are the only things keeping this off the top.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Ernst Blofeld
13/2Speed driver and model rank third, a 2lb weight drop helps, and Hamad Al Jehani's yard is hitting 20% — sufficient each-way appeal at the price.
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4Predicted 4th
Boatswain
8/1Simon and Ed Crisford at 19% over 14 days is a credible trainer angle, and the 1lb weight reduction keeps Boatswain competitive at the bottom of the weights.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Forty Years On
7/4Form string 112-11 at 7f on good ground with distance fit confirmed; every available signal — going, distance, market confidence — points to this filly. The class rise is the sole…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Copacabana Sands
20/1The Δsteamer in a 20-runner Group 3 with Oisin Murphy booked and Balding firing at 22% is the clearest danger signal in the race; earlier form SPs of 4/1 and 10/3 suggest a return…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
The Prettiest Star
13/2Progressive form string 12-405 with a price that has already collapsed from 16/1 to 13/2; Callum Rodriguez at 19% is not a jockey booking you ignore lightly in Group 3 company.
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4Predicted 4th
Planet Seeker
12/1Distance fit D:+ and Ralph Beckett's yard at 21% in 14 days; the SPs of 2/1 and 13/2 bookend a horse who showed early ability and may be returning to form at 12/1.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Langstone
7/2Two consecutive wins, a distance fit of +, and a market steam to 7/2 with Hector Crouch in the saddle. Clive Cox has this horse peaking at the right moment.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Flight Control
9/1Model's top pick at 6.30, recent win, distance fits, and a genuine market move. The 10lb weight rise limits the ceiling but not the place chance.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Military Code
12/1Appleby at 43% over 14 days is the single most dominant trainer signal in the race; a 9-9 weight and a +9lb rise are the only brakes on a big run.
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4Predicted 4th
Lion Of Mali
12/1Form 151221 with two recent favourites-price wins screams a horse on the upgrade — the class rise to a Class 2 is the question, but Fanshawe rarely pitches them in blind.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Asuka
7/2Model top-ranked at 5.82, three wins in four runs, distance and going both confirmed positive, Boughey yard at 20% strike rate. The weight relief of a pound helps rather than hind…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Blue Brother
9/2Hot yard at 20%, Rodriguez at 19%, price of 9/2 suggests market confidence — the going and distance unknowns are the only drag on a potentially unexposed sprinter.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Completely Random
5/1Model-ranked second at 5.62 on speed figures, but 9-12 topweight is a serious ask; likely finishes into a place rather than winning outright at this weight ceiling.
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4Predicted 4th
Indian Run
12/1Form string 892133 shows genuine improvement — consecutive thirds and a second into her last three — at 12/1 the market has underestimated a horse trending upward.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Maelstrom
13/2Back-to-back wins, positive distance and going fit, Williams yard at 24% strike rate, and the lone front-runner sets up a pace shape that rewards the hold-up runner with finishing…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Ancient State
15/2Steaming market move, form string showing 511552, and positive going and distance flags make him the most credible threat to Maelstrom at a workable price.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
The Man
15/2Richard Spencer's yard is firing at 21% and The Man's last-run figure of 7 at 6/1 represents a live form line dropping a class into this race today.
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4Predicted 4th
Jer Batt
9/1Last three SPs of 4/1, 11/4F, and 4/1 show a horse the market has consistently respected; positive going fit and a class drop today keep him honest at 9/1.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Night Breeze
7/1Top of the deterministic ranking, steaming in the market, 10lb lower than last run, going fit confirmed. Market and model agree — that alignment is rare enough to trust.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Touch The Moon
6/1Distance fit and going fit both positive, recent winning form, and 9lb lighter than last run. The cold trainer is the only drag on a strong profile at 6/1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
City Of Poets
8/1James Tate's yard firing at 22% and a recent course win at 4/1 in the form — the class rise of one is manageable and Rossa Ryan adds further quality.
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4Predicted 4th
Thunder Run
10/3K.R. Burke's hot yard at 23% is the real tell — but the topweight of 9-12 and erratic form string 72072 makes this a place shout rather than a winner.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Blue Courvoisier
6/1Model's top pick at 6.43, lone clean market move in the race, won last time on matching going and distance — leads and controls at Doncaster's straight mile.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Inspired
7/1A 19lb weight drop to 8-8 after a recent win at 2/1F is significant; Burke's yard at 23% means this horse arrives in form even on a six-day turnaround.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Moonfall
6/1George Boughey's 3-year-old ran just eight days ago, recorded a recent second, goes on Good ground and is fresh enough at 6/1 to hit the frame.
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4Predicted 4th
Fifth Column
14/1Gosden yard at 29% over 14 days is the strongest trainer signal in the race; 87-day absence could mean a freshened, ready runner at a generous 14/1.
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