LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Boiling Point
9/2Top of the deterministic model, steaming market, Burke at 22%, class drop, and a distance-positive tag — every material signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Crown Of Oaks
17/2Form reads 1131-7 with strong course-appropriate distance fit; William Haggas yard at 19% and a going-positive rating makes Crown Of Oaks the most credible danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Jonquil
7/1Andrew Balding at 20% and a steaming market gives Jonquil the each-way case, but the Δ+9lb weight swing against modest recent form caps confidence at place chance.
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4Predicted 4th
Haatem
11/4Past form as a market leader is real, but two blanks, a drifting price, and a going-minus flag on Good to Firm make this a short price for a horse going the wrong way.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Night Raider
9/4The steaming market, Burke's 22% yard form, Doyle's booking, and a form sequence showing back-to-back placed runs at this level make him the most evidence-supported winner in the …
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rumstar
5/1Portman's yard is running at 21% and his last-run win at 100/30 showed genuine Group-level pace; the neutral going fit is a minor concern but he is the main danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Aspect Island
16/1James Owen at 36% in 14 days is the standout yard statistic in the entire field, and at 16/1 the 3yo with distance fit and a sharp trainer is the each-way play.
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4Predicted 4th
Partisan Hero
16/1Course-and-distance fit reads double positive and recent form shows a consistent placed record, but the trainer's 0-from-19 run in 14 days is a hard number to ignore at a bigger p…
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Indalo
5/1Varian at 42% yard strike rate, steamer market move, won last time, positive distance and going fit. The evidence stack is as clean as it gets in an open Heritage Handicap.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Beagle Bay
SPForm line 2-1411 shows consecutive wins, positive distance fit, and Hector Crouch retains the ride. Rates the most likely horse to trouble the winner at a price worth noting.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Mister Winston
18/1Oisin Murphy's 22% career strike rate is the best in the field, the steamer signal is real, and Andrew Balding's yard is operating at 20% — a dangerous each-way combination at 18/…
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4Predicted 4th
Ebt's Guard
17/2Muir and Grassick at 23% yard strike rate and a confirmed steamer signal provide enough reason to include as a longer each-way option, even with the going marked as a negative.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Talk Of New York
8/15Form reads 1-3113 — consistent, progressive, winning. Appleby at 37% and Buick at 20% career strike rate; the infrastructure around this horse is the best in the race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Shayem
17/2Model's top pick and the morning's steamer. Won last time, carries 2lb less than his previous run, Burke's yard at 22% — the most credible threat to the favourite.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Saber Strike
7/1Form includes a win and two places at this class; Haggas at 19% gives him a yard platform, though the drift to 7/1 and a 4lb weight rise tempers confidence.
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4Predicted 4th
Yazin
12/1Ryan Moore retains the ride and the Gosden yard runs at 26%, but a Δdrifter signal in a field this small is a clear enough warning to drop him to the frame.
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Awaiting result 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Believitanducan
11/2Three-timer on the bounce, lone prominent runner in the pace map, Buick retained, still carrying only 8-10 after a 10lb drop — form and race shape both point here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Defiantly
5/1Joseph O'Brien's yard at 20% strike rate, Dylan Browne McMonagle aboard at 15%, and 5/1 offers genuine each-way appeal as the market's second most interesting runner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Valiancy
5/2William Haggas at 19% yard form and a hold-up style that suits a strong pace, but 4lb up and a '6' last time limits confidence to a place at best.
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4Predicted 4th
Sea Of Kings
14/1Steaming from 10/1, Harry Eustace's yard at 20%, and a form line reading '22' — placed twice in recent starts suggests a live each-way outsider at the price.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Euston Hall
11/1Model-topper, hot yard at 25%, market steamer, won last time out, distance suits. The 91-day break has clearly been managed with purpose by Walker's stable.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Go Rimbaud
9/2Gosden at 33% and Buick in the irons is never a combination to dismiss; the drift to 9/2 is concerning but the 22-151 form and a last-time-out win keep him firmly in the frame.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Electric Dreams
15/2Murphy at 22% strike rate on a horse with a positive form flag and a last-time-out win — the class rise is a risk but the jockey booking is a signal worth taking each-way at 15/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Law Court
9/1Consistent 3-2212 form string, distance positive, and Richard Hannon's yard at 21% — the drift to 9/1 is puzzling enough to make this the value outsider in the frame.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
So Lovely
4/5Debut second, market halved her price in 14 days, Ryan Moore at 27% strike rate. The form line exists; nobody else's does at a comparable level.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Beguiled
17/2Gosden yard at 33% over 14 days with William Buick booked is the strongest trainer-jockey combination in the field among the debutantes — the danger comes from the unknown.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Elevating
7/1Finished second on debut at 5/2 in a Class 2, now available at 7/1 in the same class — Richard Hannon's yard at 21% over 14 days backs a horse the market has drifted without cause.
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4Predicted 4th
Siena Storm
11/1Ed Walker's yard is running at 25% over 14 days and Siena Storm is available at 11/1 — the trainer form is the only tell here but it is a real one.
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Winner placed 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
The Bookkeeper
7/1Moore at 27% strike rate, steaming market, 3lb lighter, hold-up style ideally suited to an uncertain pace in an 18-runner field. Hughes targeting this precisely.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mia Fantasia
7/2Form reads 1-3 from two runs, Oisin Murphy at 22% strike rate, Hugo Palmer yard at 18% — only a 5lb weight concession to The Bookkeeper keeps her out of slot one.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Cilician
9/1Three-run trajectory from 66/1 to 7/4F tells a story of rapid improvement; steaming to 9/1 today and distance-fit rated positive — Meehan's yard is cold but the horse argues other…
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4Predicted 4th
Wise And Wonderful
13/2Form reads 4-2-1, distance-fit positive, Balding yard at 22%, and Saffie Osborne at 14% strike rate — the 13/2 market has drifted but this filly found a winner last time at class …
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Naana's Shadow
11/2Top of the deterministic model, steaming in the market, Oisin Murphy booked, two-class drop absorbs the 17lb weight rise. The combination of market confidence and jockey quality i…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Quantum Power
14/1Form string ends 1-1-1, goes on Good to Firm, and Tom Clover's yard is the form yard in this field at 31% over 14 days. A class rise is the only drag on a horse clearly improving.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Truly Glamorous
8/1Market has backed her despite a three-class rise and 17lb weight drop; wins and placed efforts in form suggest natural ability, but the class jump is a significant ask at this sta…
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4Predicted 4th
One And Gone
16/1Form ends 1-1 and the class drop gives a platform, but a 13lb weight rise and Ian Williams' 9% yard form dampen conviction beyond each-way framing.
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Winner called 4/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Diamond Necklace
8/11Five wins from five starts, Ryan Moore at 27% strike rate, and no market drift despite an 81-day break. The form string is the cleanest in the race by a distance.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Botagoz
14/1Top of the deterministic model at 7.20, steaming into 14/1 with Varian's yard at 38%. The weight of money argues she finishes second-best at worst.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
See The Fire
5/1Distance fit marked as positive, Balding's yard running at 22%, and the form string 29-116 shows a horse capable of hitting the frame in good company.
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4Predicted 4th
Friendly Soul
11/4Gosden yard in excellent form at 33%, but the Δ+7lb weight rise and a P in recent form make this a likely also-ran in a field of this quality.
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