LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Archivist
11/1Five-pound weight drop, live steamer, form string closing on a win at this class — the market is moving toward him for a reason and the pace setup suits a hold-up profile.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Damysus
3/1Model top-pick, Gosden yard in form at 25%, Doyle booked — but topweight on Good to Soft with a two-pound rise asks questions the 3/1 price doesn't fully compensate.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Persica
7/1Won at 1/1F last time making all — dictating from the front in a strong-run race is a real asset, and the model's +0.5 form driver reflects a horse in career-best form.
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4Predicted 4th
Geryon
7/2Three-year-old allowance, consistent form string closing 4-4-1-2, distance fits — if the pace collapses late, Gary Carroll's hold-up ride catches the principals.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Silver Lake
9/4Market steamer, back-to-back wins at 4/5F last time, Haggas firing at 21%, and 9lb lighter than main rival Lady Dora Mae — the pace duel up front sets this up for a hold-up finish…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lady Dora Mae
4/1Ryan Moore, Boughey at 29%, consistent form with five placings in six — she'll be involved but gives away too much weight to Silver Lake at this level.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Dream Camp
9/110lb drop in weight from last run, Andrew Balding at 17%, and a win on the board at this trip — capable of sneaking third at 9/1 if the pace collapse benefits runners coming wide.
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4Predicted 4th
Pendella
9/1Won last time out at 11/10F, K.R. Burke's yard at 23% — step up in class is steep but the form is recent and the weight concession from the top makes the price worth noting.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Oklahoma
6/4Beaten favourite twice-placed form, O'Brien yard at 23% strike rate, Ryan Moore at 27% — the three strongest converging signals in the race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lancaster Tower
2/1Debut third as 5/6 favourite screams unlucky at the trip or pace; Gosden yard at 23% and Buick booked confirm this one is expected to go close.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Launch Sequence
5/1Two consecutive thirds at the same class level with a 23% trainer yard; the +5lb weight rise is the one credible reason it doesn't win.
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4Predicted 4th
Speyside
12/1A debut third that came at 40/1 is a significant positive signal; Hugo Palmer's yard is quiet but Oisin Murphy at 21% gives this one a finishing kick.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Plage De Havre
9/1Model-top at 6.48 with the sharpest market move in the field; confirmed distance fit, Balding yard at 17% strike rate, and McDonald booked with clear intent at 9/1.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Primo Lara
5/1Two wins on the bounce, the hottest trainer in the race at 24%, and a 17lb weight relief make Primo Lara the most dangerous horse to Plage De Havre at 5/1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Explode
16/1Back-to-back wins, 10lb off his back, and William Buick aboard at 20% career strike rate — six days' turnaround is aggressive but Buick does not take weak rides at 16/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Master Vintner
12/1Three runs reading 2-2-1 at the business end of his card with Ralph Beckett's yard firing at 21%; 1lb weight relief and confirmed distance suitability make him the each-way each-w…
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Bacio
10/3Form string 121-11 produces the highest form driver in the field (+1.1); the class rise is minimal (↑1) and Ward's operation targets these moments precisely.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mission Central
8/1Form 0-1117 with a recent Group-level placed run and Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate makes this the hardest horse to dismiss behind Bacio.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Cover Up
14/1A Crisford yard operating at 31% strike rate and a 7/1 win last time out in the form string; Buick at 20% makes this the each-way value in the field.
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4Predicted 4th
Night Raider
10/1The Burke yard is running at 23% over 14 days and Doyle at 18% is a quality booking; form 0-1100 shows two consecutive wins before a blank last run.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Hell Of A Spin
11/1Model-top at 6.59, the only steamer in a field of drifters, genuine distance fitness, and a pace shape that rewards a closer off a contested early gallop set by Arapaho Gold.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Arapaho Gold
11/4Highest raw form score in the model at +1.0, unbeaten in three, and likely to control the framing gallop — but the drift and distance query cap him at second best today.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Marco Polo
11/4One run, unknown ceiling, but Ryan Moore at 27% and an O'Brien yard firing at 23% strike rate are two signals too strong to dismiss in a wide-open juvenile Group 2.
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4Predicted 4th
Adaay of Scarlett
4/1Oisin Murphy at 21%, genuine distance fitness, and a consistent form string of 112222 — the model has him second, and he will be finishing hard late if the pace collapses.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Al Nayyir
15/2Heads the deterministic model on combined form, going, and a +0.8 market-move boost that is the single largest positive driver in the field; Buick's 20% strike rate seals the book…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Illinois
13/2Back-to-back wins in the form string (-36155), Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate, and a pace shape — two front-runners burning out — that suits a hold-up finisher perfectly.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Mount Atlas
6/1Won last time out (4-2231), arrives in the best recent winning form of any named front-runner, and Balding's 17% yard form gives quiet support at 6/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Amiloc
7/2Beckett's yard at 21% is the strongest trainer signal in the field, and at 7/2 there is each-way place value even if the recent U in the form string is a concern.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Bearish
11/1Only steamer in the race, Oisin Murphy at 21% strike rate aboard, 3lb weight drop to 8-11, won last time out — every angle converges.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Outback Heat
12/1Model's top score of 6.05, Eustace yard at 25% strike rate, consistent 1312 form — the 64-day absence and 9lb rise are the only credible negatives.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Blue Courvoisier
8/1Clive Cox at 26% over 14 days is the yard signal of the race; Rossa Ryan has pace to exploit off 9-2 if the front-runners set it up.
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4Predicted 4th
Welbury
20/1Won last time, Bethell yard scorching at 32%, and a significant weight drop of 8lb — the two-class rise is the risk, but the stable confidence is real.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Albaydaa
13/2Top of the model on the back of a genuine market move, a 6lb weight concession vs last run, positive distance and going fit, and a Haggas yard running at 20% — every signal points…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Starlight Lass
11/4Three wins from three, sole front-runner with the race to herself if she wants it — but stepping two classes in a 21-runner handicap at 11/4 is a significant ask for a lightly-rac…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Zooella
14/1Back-to-back wins, 25lb weight relief vs last run, Ralph Beckett's yard at 29% — the only confirmed hold-up runner, ideally placed if Starlight Lass burns herself off in front.
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4Predicted 4th
Tryst
8/1Won last time at 5/1, 11lb lighter than that run, George Boughey's yard is hot at 21% — drifting to 8/1 is a slight concern but the form trajectory of 427611 is undeniably upward.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Perfect Nation
6/1Three wins from three front-end positions, three times a market favourite delivered, and a steaming 6/1 for Boughey's 21% yard with Loughnane in the plate.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rising Tiger
9/2Three consecutive seconds at shortening prices with Oisin Murphy booked — the market move from 14/1 to 9/2 is the loudest signal in the race after Perfect Nation.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Weleyff
5/1Bethell's yard at 38% in 14 days is extraordinary; Weleyff's rapid form progression of 311 gives him every right to run into a place from the front.
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4Predicted 4th
Mirzimaan
10/1Ran 7/4F last time for Boughey, William Buick takes the ride at 20% career strike rate — a step up in class but the talent is clearly there at 10/1.
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