LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Zavateri
13/8Top of the scored ranking at 6.73, the only horse with D:+ GF:+ alignment, steaming in the market — three independent signals converging on one horse at a mile on good-to-firm gro…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Boiling Point
9/2Second in the model at 5.69, 5lb weight relief, Burke's yard red-hot at 21% — honest form in Group company and genuine conditions to run his race.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Seagulls Eleven
4/1The drift is a worry but a form line of −21130 at this level shows enough quality to fill a place slot, especially if the pace plays to a prominent racer.
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4Predicted 4th
Ebt's Guard
12/1Steaming into the field from 8/1 at its last SP, the market move mirrors Zavateri's pattern — the going and distance negatives limit the ceiling but the place market has been wron…
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Green Sky
9/1Distance fit, going fit, 13lb weight relief, three wins in last four, hot yard at 19%, and a market steam move all align — this is the clearest multi-signal case in the field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
High Degree
13/8Going suits and form is consistent, but two defeats at short prices in similar contests and another class rise make him shorter than the evidence warrants.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Tony Montana
9/2The model's top pick on market move and speed; Philippart De Foy's yard at 20% is the credible hook, and a 9/2 steam deserves respect for each-way purposes.
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4Predicted 4th
Too Soon
7/2A 23lb weight rise is brutal, going is a negative (GF:-), but the pace scenario could suit a hold-up style if the race develops into a sprint from the home turn.
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Awaiting result 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Addison Grey
12/1Model's top-ranked runner at 6.57, with distance, going, and class all aligned. Clive Cox at 22% and a strong market move make this the most corroborated selection in the field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Forty Years On
2/1Form string 1112-1 is elite and the market has backed it hard, but a cold yard at 4%, 79 days off, and a going question mark prevent slot 1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Ghost Mode
9/2Andrew Balding's yard at 18% and a form line that closed with a win at 9/2 makes Ghost Mode the live each-way runner, with distance a positive fit.
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4Predicted 4th
Aalto
10/1Steaming in the market and Cieren Fallon at 19% career strike rate give Aalto a tell, though distance and going are marked uncertain and trainer form is modest at 11%.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Roku Nana
15/2Strongest market move in the field combined with the hottest trainer yard at 27% — in a race this light on form, those two signals dwarf anything else on the card.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lily Pink
2/1A second on debut at a higher starting price than today's odds suggests a horse the market has caught up with; Charlie Johnston's yard at 14% adds minor support.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Thespian Queen
7/1Ran second on debut, steps up in class from an 8-13 weight, and offers 7/1 each-way value in a field where the ceiling of most rivals is unknown.
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4Predicted 4th
Rhythm Of My Heart
7/2Ran second last time at 11/4 favourite and is steaming at 7/2, but the Menuisier yard is 0-from-7 in the last fortnight — that cold spell is a hard counter-signal at this price.
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Raammee
11/4Model-topper at 7.12, steaming market, Varian yard at 35% — three independent signals pointing the same direction. The 10lb rise is absorbed by class superiority.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Erzindjan
15/2Model second at 6.14 with the highest-rated jockey in the race at 27%; a recent win on the form string and Ryan Moore will position him to pounce in the final furlong.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Al Aali
10/1Form reads 875511 — improving fast, Buick up, and a going flag of GF:+. Model fourth at 5.52 and the 10/1 looks generous for a horse this in-form.
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4Predicted 4th
Diego El Queso
9/2D:+ and GF:+ are the best dual fit flags in the field; form 3-2126 shows consistent placing. Lyons runners travel well and 9/2 reflects genuine competitiveness.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sale Shark
6/1Oisin Murphy at 21% takes the ride at 6/1 — the highest-strike-rate jockey pairing in the field. A genuine pace from the front-runners sets up a Murphy-delivered finish perfectly.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Dubai Champion
5/1Ryan Moore at 27% on a horse showing 4312 progressive form; prominent position suits the pace shape and he has the class trajectory to run out the main danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Adonius
2/1The market has backed him hard and the form is consistent, but Menzies at 0-from-11 in 14 days is too big a red flag to ignore — place money only.
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4Predicted 4th
Hickory Lad
11/1Second in the deterministic model on speed and form signals; the 11/1 reflects a yard running at 12% in recent days and a form line with an 8 at the end that needs explaining away.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Dance In The Storm
9/4Backed into 9/4, Murphy booked, Balding at 17% — won last time out at positive distance fit. Every meaningful signal points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Air Force One
11/2Form reads 105331 — three consecutive placed efforts, consistent at this class, Geoff Oldroyd's yard running at 25% from just four runners.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Evening Saigon
12/1Model scores form and speed positively; James Doyle at 18% strike rate adds jockey confidence, and the 0-1271 string shows a winner capable of running into the places.
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4Predicted 4th
Far Above Dream
11/1James Owen's yard firing at 17%, form includes a recent win, and the +0.3 going signal from the model suggests conditions will suit at a fair price.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Love Me Tender
9/2Model's top score of 7.90 underpinned by Mullins yard at 31%, Buick at 20%, and a form string of 114. The market move confirms what the data already shows.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Hopewell Rock
8/1A confirmed steamer today, Boughey's yard is firing at 25%, and a last-run win off near-identical weight makes this the clearest danger to the favourite.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Emit
11/2Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate aboard a confirmed market mover — model scores Emit third at 6.32 and the Moore booking alone justifies each-way interest at 11/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Square Necker
14/1Form reading 31-211 is the most consistent sequence of any runner below 9-0 in the weights, and Kevin Philippart De Foy's four-year-old arrives on a light 8-13.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Notable Speech
3/1Model top-pick at 7.00, steaming into 3/1 with William Buick up and Appleby firing at 35% — three independent signals pointing at the same horse on the same day.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lake Forest
11/2Ranked second by the model at 6.00, Haggas at 21% and Fallon at 20%, with a win last time and a 2lb weight drop keeping him very much in the mix behind the market's banker.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Satono Reve
11/1As lone confirmed front-runner it controls tempo entirely; distance fit is positive (+) and a form line of 1223 shows it runs its race consistently without the need for cover.
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4Predicted 4th
Flora Of Bermuda
11/1Last two starts produced a 1011 form string at 3/1 and 5/2F, Oisin Murphy at 21% strike rate — a 4lb weight drop adds appeal at a double-figure price in an open field.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Limestone
9/2Model-top at 7.93 with the field's strongest speed score, a steaming market, Ryan Moore booked, and three wins from his last four completed starts. The case is comprehensive.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mythical Bay
7/1Progressive form string of -12311, Oisin Murphy at 21%, and Balding's 17% yard makes her the likeliest chaser — but she concedes 13lb to Limestone at today's weights.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Into The Light
15/2Appleby's 35% strike rate is the hottest yard figure on the sheet and Buick at 20% gives Into The Light a powerful team; the drift from favouritism is the only hesitation.
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4Predicted 4th
My Ballyquinn
33/1A 16lb weight drop and a notable market move to 33/1 are real signals even at O'Meara's modest 12% strike rate — this is the value outsider with a genuine tell.
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