LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Haffner
7/4Moore-O'Brien at a Group 3 with a 27-27% jockey-trainer axis, a 212 form string already tested at stakes level, and a pace map where he can control from the front.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Trean
7/2Steaming into 7/2 off a recent win, weight relief of 2lb, and a 301 form string that shows he bounces back — P. Twomey's yard is sharper than the 10% strike rate suggests.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Stardom Glory
12/1The 221 form string, verified going fit, and a 4lb drop in weight give James Doyle a closer with genuine claims at a price the steamer has already started to compress.
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4Predicted 4th
Gentle Hurricane
13/2One win, a class rise of three, and a steamer carrying the model — interesting, but one run is too thin to trust when the race gets real in the final furlong.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Corolla Point
11/2Top model score, 6lb weight drop, Bethell yard at 41% strike rate, market steamer, and three recent placed runs at this level — every signal converges.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Naana's Sparkle
11/1Form reading 6-1412 with positive distance and going flags; Lemos De Souza yard in 27% form over 14 days is the second-hottest stable in the field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Trefor
12/1Ran just 8 days ago, returns fresh, Charles Hills yard at 22% strike rate, and a recent 1 on the form string suggests the drop in the weights has found the mark.
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4Predicted 4th
Toca Madera
6/1Market steamer scores second in the model at 5.94 but distance and going both flag negative — the market move is the only strong positive, which limits conviction.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Saxon Grace
11/8Top of the model, yard at 40% in 14 days, won last time as 6/5 favourite — the recency of form and trainer trajectory make this the standout selection in a weak Class 6 field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Riddikulus
7/1Form string 444141 shows a consistent operator at this level; Grant Tuer's yard at 17% adds confidence, and 9-0 is a light weight ask in a 15-runner field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Feliz Navidad
17/2Daniel Tudhope at 16% is the best jockey booking in the race; a drop two classes opens a door and O'Meara's yard runs at 16% — each-way claims are real at 17/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Daring Leader
20/1Going fit is a positive marker, Christopher Kellett's yard is running at 33% in 14 days from a small sample, and 20/1 represents a price the market may have misjudged.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Clocker
2/1Won last time out, goes on Good ground, carries 5lb less today, and her trainer is the form yard in this race at 32% over 14 days. She leads from the front and will be hard to cat…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Blue Tulip
11/4Five runs of improving form ending in a win, 15 days fresh, and 5lb off her last run — she is on an upward curve even if the yard (8%) is cold.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Musical Accord
9/4The two-class drop is real and the market has noticed it, but the 7lb weight rise, negative going flag, and 71-day absence keep her off the top two.
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4Predicted 4th
Talitha Rouge
9/2Consistent form (3436) and a 3lb weight reduction, but Daniel Tudhope's 16% strike rate and a level-class assignment leave her short of a win argument here.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Swiped
4/1Top of the deterministic model, positive distance fit, Beckett yard at 19% in 14 days, and an ascending form sequence of 521211 — this horse is in form, at the right trip, with th…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Murashah
11/4Bethell's yard at 32% is impossible to dismiss, and the 1622/1 form line shows it can win at this level — but 118 days off and Δ+14lb makes me think danger rather than winner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Best Rate
6/1Form 324113 and Hannon-trained with a prominent racing style — a 6/1 each-way play for a horse that keeps running into the frame at this class.
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4Predicted 4th
His Finest Hour
16/1The model scores it fourth, trainer Tina Jackson running at 25% in 14 days, and 16/1 represents value for a horse whose 2262-3 form isn't as weak as the price suggests.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Fast Track Harry
11/213lb weight drop from a higher class, going-fit confirmed, Cox yard at 16% strike rate, and a steaming market — the combination of structural weight relief and yard form points he…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Dark Cloud Rising
7/1Only 11 days since last run, carrying 8-11, and Tudhope at 16% career strike rate gives this David O'Meara runner the class and freshness to chase hard — recent form of 132 reads …
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Lord Roxby
13/2Form of 014521 is strong and he gets to dictate from the front — if the pace somehow steadies, this Nigel Tinkler four-year-old won't be far away at a price.
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4Predicted 4th
Flight Control
11/1Form reads 135231 — consistent and progressive — and D:+ confirms the six furlongs suits; a 3yo stepping up two classes is a stretch but the recent sequence earns fourth billing.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Magic Boy
9/1Lone front-runner, distance fit (D:+), going fit (GF:+), Tinkler yard at 17% — the race shape hands him every structural advantage at 9/1.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Who Wants Me
18/1Form: 4-6110 shows back-to-back wins, distance suits (D:+), and a gentle 1lb weight rise — the most credible closer if Magic Boy is reeled in.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Woodstock
10/1Third in the model on genuine form and class-drop signals (Cls:↓1); Ruth Carr's yard is 5-from-27 and this horse's 346224 string shows consistent placing.
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4Predicted 4th
Go Vince Go
7/1The market move from 50/1 to 7/1 is a real signal and can't be entirely dismissed, but a cold yard at 7% and poor going fit (GF:-) cap expectations at fourth.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Rogue Jewel
4/6Won on debut at 11/1, backed into 4/6, Bethell yard at 32% and Tudhope booked — every signal points the same direction. The model's top pick and the right one.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Green Bay Dream
4/1Second on debut at 33/1 is the standout placed form in this field; Tim Easterby juveniles who run placed first time out routinely improve, and 4/1 reflects that correctly.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Does Mary Know
5/2A debut sixth at 28/1 gives little to work with, but Eve Johnson Houghton rarely sends juveniles to Class 2 without reason — third at best on current evidence.
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4Predicted 4th
Taj Mahal Palace
33/1A seventh on debut at 18/1 with a 9% jockey strike rate and a three-class rise makes the 33/1 a truthful reflection of its chances here.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Coral Cove
4/5Form of 21, yard at 17% strike rate, and a market that has never doubted this horse — three signals pointing the same direction in a novice field this thin.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tommo's Queen
6/1A 50/1-to-6/1 market move off a single run is too loud to ignore for a place; the money is organised and Michael & David Easterby know this track.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
The First Drop
7/1Second last time after a massive market move, Keatley's yard is hot at 25% — the form is real even if the class rise is a question.
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4Predicted 4th
Temple Court
11/1Four career runs give it more race experience than most in this field; a form line of 0434 with a 7/4 favouritism suggests latent ability still to be unlocked.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Bullet Point
9/2Lone front-runner in the pace map, 2lb weight relief, Haggas at 20%, Lemaire booked, steaming in the market. Uncontested lead on good to firm Ascot sets this up perfectly.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Crown Board
6/1Chapple-Hyam at 29% is the second-hottest yard in the field, form ends in a '2', and 6/1 is the right price for a horse whose trainer is in this kind of form.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Fondo Blanco
14/1The model's top pick on trainer strike-rate and market move; Varian's 31% yard is real, but GF:- ground and 51-day absence keep this to a place at best today.
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4Predicted 4th
Hickory
7/1Form ends in a '1', Osborne at 21% yard strike rate, going fits neutral. At 7/1 and dropping in the weights this is the value outsider the market may have mispriced.
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