LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
King Of Berkshire
11/1Model's top-ranked horse at 6.73, market steamer, good-to-firm going confirmed positive, Lemaire booked — every key driver points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Hoseki
15/8Three-race winning sequence is undeniable form, and Haggas's yard is firing at 20% — but plus-24lb and a drifting market cap his ceiling here.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Archers Bay
9/4Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate on a horse stepping down one class, with the Botti yard running at a workmanlike clip — each-way claims are real.
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4Predicted 4th
Tai Hang Pegasus
14/1Good-to-firm and distance both flagged positive, form reads 476231 — progressive profile — and Charlie Fellowes is a capable handler at 17% strike rate.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Thunder Call
7/4Form 02-113 with two recent wins at this class level; Haggas at 20% strike rate and positive distance flag make this the most strongly corroborated selection in the field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Anyasi
4/1Varian's 31% yard strike rate and unbeaten recent form are compelling, but the two-class rise is the credible flaw that keeps Anyasi one place behind the proven Thunder Call.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Grasmere Boy
12/1Lone front-runner in the pace map with positive distance fit; form shows 22115 and a step up in class — controlling the tempo from stall 10 makes him dangerous to the line.
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4Predicted 4th
Red Spells Danger
3/1Form 211245 with consistent placed efforts and a positive distance flag; 3/1 market position reflects respect, though the going flag is negative and the weight rise of 11lb is a d…
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Night Breeze
11/4Four placings from six runs, steamered into 11/4 through a 16lb rise, Browne McMonagle booked — form consistency and market conviction combine too strongly to ignore.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Sportingsilvermine
14/1Model's top pick on +market_move, +distance, +going — James Owen's yard at 19% in 14 days makes this the most dangerous price in the field if Night Breeze gets stopped.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Asgard's Captain
11/2Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate on a horse with genuine +distance and +going fit — the yard is quiet but Moore doesn't take rides he can't win on.
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4Predicted 4th
Castle Stuart
6/1Going fit (+), youngest horse in the field at four, and Fahey's form string shows a 023 sequence that suggests a run to maturity — worth a place at 6/1.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Shrimp Shady
13/8Form string 412161 is the best in the field by distance; Moore's 27% strike rate and Balding's 19% yard form compound a case already made by a steaming market.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Hermetic
9/2Lone prominently-placed runner in the pace map gets to dictate on Good to Firm; a weight drop of 8lb versus last run gives him an unpenalised pitch at the front.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Pole Star
7/1Steaming from 12/1 into 7/1 with McMonagle booked; the form wobble is offset by a class-neutral entry and a market that clearly knows something.
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4Predicted 4th
Mountain Road
12/1Consistent recent form 8/4351 with a weight drop of 2lb; the 69-day break and cold Jim Goldie yard are the hesitations but the form sequence earns a place berth.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
All Ways Glamorous
4/1Back-to-back wins, distance plus, going plus, yard at 29% — every signal aligns. The model scores her top of the field and the 4/1 is fair value on merit.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tuco Salamanca
6/1Distance plus, ran a win last time at the same class, yard at 23% in form. The +9lb rise is the only drag on a horse that profiles as the main danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Kendall Roy
15/2Class drop of one, trainer strike rate catching the eye, and a big market drift back to 15/2 from 40/1 last time. The form string is erratic but the drop in class is a genuine pos…
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4Predicted 4th
Bolo Neighs
4/1Ralph Beckett's 4yo is model-ranked fifth but joint favourite at 4/1 — the going minus on good-to-firm is the tell that he is being slightly over-trusted by the market today.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Crest Of Fire
7/2Market steamer with Channon's yard at 23% strike rate; 3lb weight drop, form includes a win and a 11/4F run — the pattern here is a horse the market has learned to trust.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Blue Courvoisier
4/1Top of the deterministic model, strong going fit, class drop — the Clive Cox booking and the money pouring in at 4/1 cannot be ignored as a danger to the winner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Point Of Contact
17/2Murphy's 21% strike rate, twice a 2/1F in recent memory, and a class drop from Balding's 20% yard — the each-way play at 17/2 with a jockey who wins.
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4Predicted 4th
Ammes
12/1James Owen at 32% is the hottest yard in the field; going rated neutral and class drop all point to a horse capable of grabbing a place at 12/1.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Leadlight
9/2Top deterministic score of 5.35, O'Brien yard at 20% strike rate, 7lb lighter than debut — this is a horse set up to improve sharply second time out at a fair 9/2.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Market Leader
13/2Burke running at 26% in 14 days, James Doyle booked at 18% strike rate; a debut third stepping up in class backed by one of the hottest yards in the race.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Speakers Corner
2/1Ryan Moore doesn't take meaningless rides, but the drift from opening price on a debut fourth is a caution — each-way value exists at 2/1 if the market steadies.
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4Predicted 4th
Regency Royal
7/1Ran second on debut at 3/1 for Balding who is operating at 20% over 14 days — quietly consistent profile that merits a place slot at 7/1.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Ironwill
13/213lb weight drop, going-positive, and raceday money arriving — his SP trajectory from 11/1 to 2/1F last time shows the market woke up late; it's awake early today.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Marengo Storm
7/118lb off his back and a progressive form string ending in a win makes him the chief danger, but the going question mark on GF separates him narrowly from Ironwill.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Wild Desert
8/1Appleby yard at 37% and a class drop provides the platform; William Buick at 20% strike rate keeps this live, though top weight of 9-9 is a real ask at this trip.
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4Predicted 4th
We're Goosers
3/1Murphy booking on the 3/1 market leader demands respect, but a 2lb rise, a going question mark, and a Hugo Palmer yard at 14% create enough doubt to push him out.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sondad
9/2Joint-sharpest steamer in the field, confirmed going and distance fit, a win and a place in his last two, and 2lb lighter than last time. The signals align cleanly.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Far Above Dream
6/1Model's top pick at 6.98, steaming from 11/2 to 6/1, distance fit confirmed, and James Owen's yard running at a searing 32% over 14 days. The one most likely to beat Sondad.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Tuco Salamanca
12/1Ollie Sangster's yard at 38% is the standout trainer figure; form of 59-161 shows a horse clicking into form at the right moment with confirmed distance fit.
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4Predicted 4th
Completely Random
14/1Ryan Moore's 27% career strike rate is the best jockey figure in the field; a steamer at 14/1 from 18/1, and Harry Charlton's yard running at a solid 20% over 14 days.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Amelia Earhart
11/2Model's top score, steaming market move, lightest weight in the race at 8-13 (-3lb on last run), and Ryan Moore's 27% career strike rate make her the clear winner call.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Danielle
7/2Back-to-back wins including a 1/2F victory makes her form undeniable; Buick at 20% career strike rate and going suitability keep her firmly in the mix for second.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Consent
11/2Prescott's yard is scorching at 35% in 14 days and Consent's form string features multiple wins; 301 days off is the only concern, but Prescott plots these returns meticulously.
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4Predicted 4th
Waardah
9/4Market favourite at 9/4 but Owen Burrows is 0-from-8 in the 14-day window — a cold trainer stat that the model penalises and I will not ignore.
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