LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Al Hudaiba
13/8Model-leader at 6.40, Appleby firing at 40% in 14 days, Buick booked, positive distance fit — three wins from completed runs says the form is genuine.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Undiscovered
9/1Two wins from two, drops 5lb, Ralph Beckett's yard at 21% — a class rise of two grades is the only credible worry against an otherwise strong profile.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Dr Rascal
17/2Back-to-back wins give Dr Rascal the joint-best form score in the model; the weight drop of 4lb helps, though the 9% trainer strike rate is a ceiling on confidence.
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4Predicted 4th
Ruler's Control
12/1Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard runs at 30% and James Doyle's 18% career strike rate is respectable — but 40 days off track and thin form make this a place-only interest.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Diego El Queso
13/2Top of the deterministic model, race steamer, 11lb weight drop, distance and going both positive — G.M. Lyons has him primed and Colin Keane is the booking.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Noble Horizon
5/15/1 market leader, D:+ GF:+, won last time, and Oli Rix's tiny yard is running at 50% over 14 days — the double class-jump is the only real concern.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Yabher
13/2Form string 1-0-1 in three completed runs this campaign; 6lb weight relief and a trip that fits — William Haggas horses off a short break at Goodwood carry weight.
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4Predicted 4th
Night Breeze
16/1Last three form figures read 1-2-3; going fits (GF:+) and Ian Williams has three winners from 26 runners in the last fortnight — place claims are real at 16/1.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
All Ways Glamorous
6/1Topped the deterministic model, going fit positive, distance fit positive, a win last time at 2/1, and an 11lb weight drop onto 9-4. The class rise is the only negative and the fo…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rocking Ends
8/1Ran seven days ago and is clearly fit, going fit positive, and Tom Clover at 36% is the standout trainer stat in the race — dangerous at 8/1.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Getreadytorumble
5/1Class drop, positive going and distance fit, and a market that has moved from 66/1 to 6/1 over three runs — Tom Marquand takes this hold-up horse into the mix late.
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4Predicted 4th
Indian Run
13/2Recent form reads '7-8921' — three consecutive improvement runs — going fit is positive and the model rates her fourth; 13/2 is workable each-way money.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Asmen Warrior
9/2Model-topper at 5.62, yard running at 33%, Fallon at 20%, 5lb weight relief, positive going fit — every signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Grizedale
7/2Back-to-back form including two wins and Oisin Murphy in the saddle keeps him honest; the class rise is the only credible argument against him being closer.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Spanish Voice
10/1Andrew Balding's yard at 23% and a 13lb weight drop gives Spanish Voice a live each-way claims; the going fit question is the only hedge on a bigger call.
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4Predicted 4th
Blue Rc
10/3The market has him at 10/3 but a 0-from-12 trainer and a 10lb weight spike after his last effort — that combination has beaten better horses than this.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Taritino
5/1Model's top pick by margin, back-to-back wins, 9-13 weight manageable, and a field that offers no compelling alternative despite the going flag.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Masterinthewoods
6/1Distance positive is real, model third, and a strong finishing effort last time at 9/4 shows class; the 8lb weight pull over Taritino adds appeal.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Akho Mezzna
7/2Buick at 21% is hard to ignore and the going suits (GF:+), but the trainer's 0-from-16 run and a decelerating form sequence cap the ceiling here.
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4Predicted 4th
Ohara
15/2Oisin Murphy at 22% strike rate, a 7lb drop in weight, and a hot yard at 17% makes Ohara the value outsider the market has potentially underrated at 15/2.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Benvenuto Cellini
5/1Model-topper at 6.25, form string 113-11, Ryan Moore at 27% strike rate, and a 7lb weight advantage over the older horses — every material signal converges here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Calandagan
13/8Model second at 6.22 with the strongest raw form score in the field (+1.2), but the 9-9 burden and Barzalona's 6% strike rate cap confidence against a lighter, better-ridden rival.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Kalpana
9/1Distance fit confirmed, Balding yard firing at 23%, and an improving sequence of 271-12 — she's the each-way play at a bigger price with genuine place claims.
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4Predicted 4th
Masquerade Ball
4/1Model third at 6.21 with strong form score (+1.2), but limited going and distance data in the field summary makes him a respected fourth rather than a win proposition.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Extremely Zain
2/1Unbeaten in three starts, Good ground suits, distance fits — the model's top score at 6.16 is earned. Class rise is the only doubt, but Haggas doesn't send improving 3yos here wit…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mezcala
11/2Won at this class and trip combination, good ground is ideal, distance fits perfectly — but a 7lb hike on last win's mark is a genuine ceiling at 9-8.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Stellar Sunrise
18/1A 3yo dropping in class into a Balding yard running at 23%, with Oisin Murphy booked — good ground and seven furlongs both tick. Each-way play at 18/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Amazing Journey
13/2Jamie Osborne's yard is firing at 25% over 14 days; Amazing Journey drops 9lb and stays the trip — the handicapper may have given her a gift.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Touleen
4/5Distance and going both positive, down 5lb, William Buick booked, and the market at 4/5 reflects genuine confidence — the form string shows a filly capable of winning at this leve…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Kon Tiki
4/1Model's top-ranked horse, good to firm suits her, and Ryan Moore at 27% is hard to dismiss — a fresh yard would have made her the winner, but 11% over 14 days gives pause.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Skydance
9/1The pace map's lone front-runner, down 6lb, Oisin Murphy aboard at 22% — if she controls a gentle tempo and they can't reel her in, she claims a place at 9/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Pina Sonata
10/1Down 3lb from last run, James Fanshawe's yard at 15% is the joint-hottest in the field, and the form string includes a recent win — a quiet each-way interest at 10/1.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Glorious Game
14/1Model-top rated at 6.19 with a +1.1 form score and a 2-from-2 record; Colin Keane's booking confirms stable confidence and 14/1 represents a market error on a filly with nothing i…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Moonrise
13/2Form of 1-2 in two starts, Andrew Balding's yard firing at 23% over 14 days, and Oisin Murphy (22%) is the most dangerous jockey-trainer pairing chasing the winner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Dark Issue
11/4Richard Hannon's 5.58-rated filly has shown sharp improvement across two starts but the form string of 1-4 means she's finished fourth in her most recent outing — a place rather t…
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4Predicted 4th
Nuit d'Eclair
14/1A winning debut and a hot trainer (25% strike rate) give her claims at 14/1, but the -0.5 class-change penalty and 22-day turnaround make this a stretch for more than a share of t…
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Never Enough
7/4The only runner combining a positive debut form line, the yard's 26% strike rate, and a top-tier jockey booking — the three most reliable signals in a debut-heavy field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tumishi
15/8Finished fourth on debut but the market has slashed him to 15/8, suggesting significant stable confidence — Fanshawe's 15% yard form keeps him honest as main danger.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Izuba
13/2Andrew Balding's yard is running at 23% and Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate — the most compelling debutant package in a thin field.
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4Predicted 4th
Crazee In Havana
11/1Eve Johnson Houghton at 17% on 30 runners and a model ranking of third among debutants makes this the most plausible outsider to frame the race.
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