LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Bow Echo
10/11Five from five, steaming market support, top model score of 7.73, and 8lb weight advantage over the older horses. The evidence runs in one direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Opera Ballo
7/2Appleby's yard is the hottest in this field at 35% and Buick rarely wastes a Group 1 trip; the weight hike is a concern but the class and connections demand respect.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Gstaad
10/3Model score of 6.07, Ryan Moore aboard, and a form string showing consistent front-rank performances — but reliance on a strong pace to deliver his finish is a vulnerability here.
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4Predicted 4th
Zavateri
22/1Model scores him fourth on going and form combination; Eve Johnson Houghton's quieter yard is a flag, but the 102 days between runs and Charles Bishop's 8% strike rate cap expecta…
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Missed the frame 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Crownbreaker
9/2Top of the deterministic model, steamering market, 30% trainer yard in form, and a last-run winner dropping 2lb. The evidence stack is clean and consistent.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Adonius
5/1Three from three is impossible to dismiss; the form alone demands respect. The cold yard tempers enthusiasm but a perfect record at this age keeps him squarely dangerous.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Sale Shark
13/2Confirmed five-furlong trip, Oisin Murphy in the saddle at 22%, and a market move today. His 155 form shows consistency if not brilliance — each-way claims are real.
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4Predicted 4th
Pershaada
3/1Distance and going both tick, Hannon yard at 18%, but an SP sequence of 6/5F to 33/1 to 7/1 is a horse the market keeps re-evaluating — fourth last time is a concern at Group 3 le…
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Flora Of Bermuda
3/1Won last time out at today's price, confirmed distance fit, Balding yard at 22% strike rate, and Doyle's booking signals trainer confidence despite the 3lb weight rise.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Radiant Beauty
10/1Model's top pick at 6.96, steaming in the market, distance and going both positive, and Owen's yard at 35% over 14 days — the strongest corroborating cluster in the field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Planet Seeker
6/1Form of 13-41 is progressive and Ralph Beckett handles class rises well; the drop back to 8-13 gives the three-year-old a weight advantage over the older horses.
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4Predicted 4th
Zanthos
9/2Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate on a horse whose 121-90 form contains two wins at this trip; the 9 and 0 need explaining but Murphy doesn't take losing rides lightly.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Wild Blossom
11/8Steaming 11/8 with a 30% Burke yard in blistering form; James Doyle booked and the model's top-ranked pick on the combined weight of market move, class drop, and form.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Zigazig Ah
7/1Back-to-back wins and a proven distance flag make her the clearest danger, but a 12lb weight rise from last time is a genuine concern at this level.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Fast Track
11/2A 1/10F winner last time out stepping up in class; Oisin Murphy's 22% strike rate and Andrew Balding's 22% yard form give her a place claim at 11/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Call Nicki
25/1Strong recent form string ending in a win and only 13 days between runs; Tim Easterby's 8% yard form caps the upside but she's not without a prayer at 25/1.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Hatteen
2/1Topped the deterministic model at 6.88, backed from 11/2 to 2/1 — the largest market move in the field — from Balding's 22% yard, 4lb lighter than last time.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Cannes
4/1O'Brien's yard at 25% is the strongest trainer signal in the race; three consecutive favourites' marks suggest class, even if the weight rise and final-run zero invite caution.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Infraad
7/2Going-positive, 2lb lighter, and model-ranked third at 5.51 — the class rise is the drag, but Haggas horses stepping up in class at Goodwood are rarely without a shout.
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4Predicted 4th
Bay Royale
13/2A dramatic 8lb weight drop and Eustace's hot 25% yard keep Bay Royale in the frame despite drifting in the market — the conditions suit a fresh horse off 71 days.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Annastarzy
4/1Three wins on the spin, the strongest form sequence in the field, top of the deterministic model at 6.64, and steaming from 14/1 to 4/1 — the market has found the same conclusion.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rumba Numba
11/2Varian at 37% in-yard is impossible to ignore; the 12lb weight rise is the worry, but a class drop and solid 124-15 form keeps her firmly in the mix.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Crazee Icon
6/1Ran to a near-favourite's level last three runs with form -52511 and Andrew Balding's yard is hot at 25%; distance is a mild query but the ability is there at 6/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Nanino Niyati
13/2The 8lb weight drop is a genuine positive and the steaming market can't be dismissed, but the distance minus and unproven record at this class cap her ceiling.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Final Objective
9/2Steaming price backed by class drop and a 41-day freshener; Callum Rodriguez at 17% and a form structure that improves on context. The market move is organic, not vapour.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Launch Sequence
15/8Burke's 30% yard form and Doyle in the saddle are real signals; the drift is a concern but not fatal — expect this horse to run into second rather than win.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Agrippa
6/1Front-runner with an improving form line (5 then 2), a Richard Hannon yard at 12%, and Pat Dobbs up — if the pace collapses early, Agrippa could steal into the frame.
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4Predicted 4th
Severn Councils
5/1Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate is the single most compelling jockey signal in the race; 66/1 last time to 5/1 today is a dramatic collapse in price worth respecting for a pl…
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Glamorous Breeze
11/1Model top-ranked at 6.70; distance fit, going fit, yard 25% in 14 days, and a steamer from 20/1 to 11/1 — every signal is aligned in the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Twilight Calls
8/1An 11lb weight drop and positive going fit give her real each-way claims; form string 586121 shows a mare in the best form of the field at the business end.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Seven Questions
10/1Second steamer in the race at 10/1 from 18/1; the market move carries this despite Robert Cowell's cold yard — money is the signal here and it's worth respecting.
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4Predicted 4th
Lexington Blitz
11/2Distance fit, going fit, form 19-313 shows a horse that belongs at this level; 11/2 in a 24-runner field represents genuine place value from a fresher runner.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Trawlerman
2/1Model top-ranked at 6.87, form-positive, going-fit, and backed by the form's hottest yard at 47%. Buick's booking at this level is a statement of intent.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Scandinavia
10/11Five-from-five record and Ryan Moore make her a serious threat, but the model scores her second at 6.50 and her yard runs at just 11% over 14 days — the form reads better than the…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rahiebb
10/1Form shows a recent 8/1 run with a return to form implied; Varian's yard at 37% over 14 days is the second-hottest operation in the field and warrants each-way respect at 10/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Lazy Griff
14/1Going-fit positive, freshest horse in the race at 24 days, and will set the pace from the front — likely to run on honourably before tiring late in a two-mile Group 1.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Qirat
10/3Arrived off a win, down 2lb, with a hot trainer at 21% and a significant market move to 10/3. The form, the weight, the yard, and the money all point the same way.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lake Forest
11/8Still the market leader and Haggas does not send horses here without purpose, but the drift and the weight rise make him the danger rather than the banker.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rogue Diplomat
11/1James Owen's yard is scorching at 34% and Rogue Diplomat has a '1' latest with strong distance and going fit — each-way claims are real at 11/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Marvelman
5/1The Balding yard's 25% strike rate and the steaming price keep Marvelman in the frame, but two poor recent runs and unknown going make this a speculative fourth.
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