LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Havana Sprite
8/1Three wins from four, Tate yard at 31%, Hector Crouch at 18% — the form string is the strongest in the race and the drift to 8/1 is the invitation to take the price.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Ruler's Pride
9/1Today's steamer move is real, Burke's yard is at 24% and the class drop is a positive, but the 107 form needs explaining before it earns slot one.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Henley On Thames
17/2Form of 6221 showing consistent improvement, a 12lb weight drop, and a distance-positive profile make this 17/2 shot the each-way play at the prices.
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4Predicted 4th
Towelontheterrace
33/1The lone front-runner with Candlish's yard at a striking 40% over 14 days — if the pace gets soft and no one chases, this 33/1 shot pinches it on the front end.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Poatan
10/1Model-top at 6.88, dropping a class, a 66-day freshen-up, and the clearest market move in the field. David Egan knows this horse well enough from prior rides and the trip fits.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Naana's Shadow
4/1Form string 131191 is the race's most consistent; Murphy's 21% SR seals the booking quality. The class rise and 9-9 topweight are the only things keeping it off the top.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Miss Yechance
8/1Burke's 24% yard form is the best training operation in the field; 8/1 is fair price on a horse whose last SP of 17/2 matches today's price almost exactly.
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4Predicted 4th
Schrodinger's Cat
15/2Form 831265 shows steady progression; distance and going both suit. 15/2 in a race this competitive and a 5 on the progressive curve makes it the value outsider.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Valedictory
13/2Gosden yard at 25% in the past fortnight, going-fit, two wins from last three, and 9lb lighter than Small Fry with Buick booked — every signal outside the market points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Kirchner
9/2Ryan Moore on a four-year-old whose price has compressed from 50/1 to 11/4 in three runs — a James Owen yard at 21% provides the training backdrop to back up the form trajectory.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Small Fry
5/2The market is rarely entirely wrong and Small Fry has the pace to control this, but the +7lb hike on unsuitable going is a credible reason to land him no better than third.
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4Predicted 4th
Mountain Road
14/1Distance and going both rated positive (D:+, GF:+), consistent recent form including a third last time, and racing fresh off a 10-day turnaround — the 14/1 is generous for what th…
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Constitution River
13/8Lone prominent runner, 11-111 form, strongest market move in the field, and Ryan Moore at 27% — every signal converges. The pace map hands him the race on a plate.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Item
15/2Form reads 11-191 with a recent third SP of 3/1; positive going fit and Andrew Balding's yard active. Best placed of the hold-up runners to close if the pace is honest enough.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Ombudsman
11/10Three straight wins and the Gosden-Buick axis make him impossible to ignore for a place, but the morning drift from odds-on keeps him out of the frame for the win.
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4Predicted 4th
Hawk Mountain
16/1Ran 11-123 in his last three, including a fifth as 5/4F — form that shows he can be competitive at this level without quite delivering, O'Brien yard in 27% form is the live angle …
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Superior Choice
11/2Three-from-three in current form, top of the deterministic model at 7.39, Gosden yard at 25%, steaming market, and a 5lb weight advantage over the joint-market leaders. Every sign…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Christmas Day
5/2Ryan Moore at 27% strike rate on the O'Brien second-string, solid form reading 1-1312, and the trainer firing at 27% over 14 days. Danger throughout but lacks Superior Choice's cu…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Maltese Cross
2/1Best form in the book reading 1-1121 and Haggas knows this trip, but 73 days off at the same weight as fresher rivals is a credible excuse if he finds the line just too far.
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4Predicted 4th
Pierre Bonnard
3/1Form of 7-2-7-3 shows consistent placed efforts without winning — O'Brien's third string here, and the pattern of getting beaten suggests the same fate at this level.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Haffner
7/4Moore-O'Brien at a Group 3 with a 27-27% jockey-trainer axis, a 212 form string already tested at stakes level, and a pace map where he can control from the front.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Trean
7/2Steaming into 7/2 off a recent win, weight relief of 2lb, and a 301 form string that shows he bounces back — P. Twomey's yard is sharper than the 10% strike rate suggests.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Stardom Glory
12/1The 221 form string, verified going fit, and a 4lb drop in weight give James Doyle a closer with genuine claims at a price the steamer has already started to compress.
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4Predicted 4th
Gentle Hurricane
13/2One win, a class rise of three, and a steamer carrying the model — interesting, but one run is too thin to trust when the race gets real in the final furlong.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Corolla Point
11/2Top model score, 6lb weight drop, Bethell yard at 41% strike rate, market steamer, and three recent placed runs at this level — every signal converges.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Naana's Sparkle
11/1Form reading 6-1412 with positive distance and going flags; Lemos De Souza yard in 27% form over 14 days is the second-hottest stable in the field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Trefor
12/1Ran just 8 days ago, returns fresh, Charles Hills yard at 22% strike rate, and a recent 1 on the form string suggests the drop in the weights has found the mark.
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4Predicted 4th
Toca Madera
6/1Market steamer scores second in the model at 5.94 but distance and going both flag negative — the market move is the only strong positive, which limits conviction.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Saxon Grace
11/8Top of the model, yard at 40% in 14 days, won last time as 6/5 favourite — the recency of form and trainer trajectory make this the standout selection in a weak Class 6 field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Riddikulus
7/1Form string 444141 shows a consistent operator at this level; Grant Tuer's yard at 17% adds confidence, and 9-0 is a light weight ask in a 15-runner field.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Feliz Navidad
17/2Daniel Tudhope at 16% is the best jockey booking in the race; a drop two classes opens a door and O'Meara's yard runs at 16% — each-way claims are real at 17/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Daring Leader
20/1Going fit is a positive marker, Christopher Kellett's yard is running at 33% in 14 days from a small sample, and 20/1 represents a price the market may have misjudged.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Clocker
2/1Won last time out, goes on Good ground, carries 5lb less today, and her trainer is the form yard in this race at 32% over 14 days. She leads from the front and will be hard to cat…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Blue Tulip
11/4Five runs of improving form ending in a win, 15 days fresh, and 5lb off her last run — she is on an upward curve even if the yard (8%) is cold.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Musical Accord
9/4The two-class drop is real and the market has noticed it, but the 7lb weight rise, negative going flag, and 71-day absence keep her off the top two.
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4Predicted 4th
Talitha Rouge
9/2Consistent form (3436) and a 3lb weight reduction, but Daniel Tudhope's 16% strike rate and a level-class assignment leave her short of a win argument here.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Swiped
4/1Top of the deterministic model, positive distance fit, Beckett yard at 19% in 14 days, and an ascending form sequence of 521211 — this horse is in form, at the right trip, with th…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Murashah
11/4Bethell's yard at 32% is impossible to dismiss, and the 1622/1 form line shows it can win at this level — but 118 days off and Δ+14lb makes me think danger rather than winner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Best Rate
6/1Form 324113 and Hannon-trained with a prominent racing style — a 6/1 each-way play for a horse that keeps running into the frame at this class.
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4Predicted 4th
His Finest Hour
16/1The model scores it fourth, trainer Tina Jackson running at 25% in 14 days, and 16/1 represents value for a horse whose 2262-3 form isn't as weak as the price suggests.
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