LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Hell Of A Spin
11/1Model-top at 6.59, the only steamer in a field of drifters, genuine distance fitness, and a pace shape that rewards a closer off a contested early gallop set by Arapaho Gold.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Arapaho Gold
11/4Highest raw form score in the model at +1.0, unbeaten in three, and likely to control the framing gallop — but the drift and distance query cap him at second best today.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Marco Polo
11/4One run, unknown ceiling, but Ryan Moore at 27% and an O'Brien yard firing at 23% strike rate are two signals too strong to dismiss in a wide-open juvenile Group 2.
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4Predicted 4th
Adaay of Scarlett
4/1Oisin Murphy at 21%, genuine distance fitness, and a consistent form string of 112222 — the model has him second, and he will be finishing hard late if the pace collapses.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Al Nayyir
15/2Heads the deterministic model on combined form, going, and a +0.8 market-move boost that is the single largest positive driver in the field; Buick's 20% strike rate seals the book…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Illinois
13/2Back-to-back wins in the form string (-36155), Ryan Moore at 27% career strike rate, and a pace shape — two front-runners burning out — that suits a hold-up finisher perfectly.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Mount Atlas
6/1Won last time out (4-2231), arrives in the best recent winning form of any named front-runner, and Balding's 17% yard form gives quiet support at 6/1.
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4Predicted 4th
Amiloc
7/2Beckett's yard at 21% is the strongest trainer signal in the field, and at 7/2 there is each-way place value even if the recent U in the form string is a concern.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Bearish
11/1Only steamer in the race, Oisin Murphy at 21% strike rate aboard, 3lb weight drop to 8-11, won last time out — every angle converges.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Outback Heat
12/1Model's top score of 6.05, Eustace yard at 25% strike rate, consistent 1312 form — the 64-day absence and 9lb rise are the only credible negatives.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Blue Courvoisier
8/1Clive Cox at 26% over 14 days is the yard signal of the race; Rossa Ryan has pace to exploit off 9-2 if the front-runners set it up.
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4Predicted 4th
Welbury
20/1Won last time, Bethell yard scorching at 32%, and a significant weight drop of 8lb — the two-class rise is the risk, but the stable confidence is real.
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Missed the frame 0/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Albaydaa
13/2Top of the model on the back of a genuine market move, a 6lb weight concession vs last run, positive distance and going fit, and a Haggas yard running at 20% — every signal points…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Starlight Lass
11/4Three wins from three, sole front-runner with the race to herself if she wants it — but stepping two classes in a 21-runner handicap at 11/4 is a significant ask for a lightly-rac…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Zooella
14/1Back-to-back wins, 25lb weight relief vs last run, Ralph Beckett's yard at 29% — the only confirmed hold-up runner, ideally placed if Starlight Lass burns herself off in front.
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4Predicted 4th
Tryst
8/1Won last time at 5/1, 11lb lighter than that run, George Boughey's yard is hot at 21% — drifting to 8/1 is a slight concern but the form trajectory of 427611 is undeniably upward.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Perfect Nation
6/1Three wins from three front-end positions, three times a market favourite delivered, and a steaming 6/1 for Boughey's 21% yard with Loughnane in the plate.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Rising Tiger
9/2Three consecutive seconds at shortening prices with Oisin Murphy booked — the market move from 14/1 to 9/2 is the loudest signal in the race after Perfect Nation.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Weleyff
5/1Bethell's yard at 38% in 14 days is extraordinary; Weleyff's rapid form progression of 311 gives him every right to run into a place from the front.
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4Predicted 4th
Mirzimaan
10/1Ran 7/4F last time for Boughey, William Buick takes the ride at 20% career strike rate — a step up in class but the talent is clearly there at 10/1.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Morrophore
7/2Top model score, confirmed going fit, Moore booked, Gosden yard at 20%, and last run was a win at 6/5F — the broadest alignment of positive signals in this field.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
A La Prochaine
9/2Beckett at 29% and 9lb weight allowance as a three-year-old are real edges; speed is her primary model driver and she is the second-ranked horse on the deterministic score.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Without Prejudice
6/1One run, one win, Buick on for Gosden — the combination of handler, jockey, and unbeaten tag at 6/1 makes this the each-way play in an open field.
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4Predicted 4th
Rhapsody
6/1Confirmed going fit and Haggas at 20% keep her honest; model ranks her third, and at 6/1 the market respects her without being excessive.
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Winner called 2/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Kalpana
6/5Model leader at 6.64 with the strongest speed and form scores, confirmed distance and going fit, and two wins from last three completed runs. The obvious call is the right call.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Minnie Hauk
3/1Second in the model at 6.04, positive going and speed signals, Ryan Moore at 27% strike rate for Aidan O'Brien's 24% yard — the most dangerous combination in the race to chase Kal…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Tattycoram
14/1Back-to-back wins, Beckett's yard at 29%, and 14/1 on the board. The uncertain going fitness is the caveat, but the place terms at this price are compelling each-way material.
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4Predicted 4th
Johanna Walsh
9/2Third in the model at 5.78, strong recent form string (3-3121) and likely to race prominently — a solid place candidate at 9/2 who could steal second if the race sets up kindly.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Centigrade
3/1A 15lb weight reduction from a winning run, Beckett at 29% yard form, and Rossa Ryan booked — three concrete signals pointing at the same horse in the same race.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
The Lost King
10/1Oisin Murphy at 21% career strike rate, positive distance fit, and a form string showing a recent 3/1 joint-favourite run — the main market danger to Centigrade.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Arctic Dawn
25/1The Kubler yard running at 22%, a 4lb weight drop, and a form line showing a recent win at 11/2 after weeks of the market underselling this horse badly.
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4Predicted 4th
Mezcala
15/2Positive going fit, positive distance fit, and William Buick at 20% strike rate — the model scores Mezcala fourth and the going plus draw signals support a placing claim at 15/2.
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Sun Goddess
1/1Model-top at 7.41, strongest speed and form drivers in the field, O'Brien yard at 24% and Moore aboard — this is as clean a favourite's case as a 22-runner field can produce.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Tokaido
4/1Four consecutive wins including four straight '1's at the right end of the form string; the only horse in the field whose recent form sequence rivals Sun Goddess.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Satellite Of Love
11/2Two from two for Clive Cox's yard, which is in 27% form; Rossa Ryan booked at 16% career strike; unbeaten record means unknown ceiling — live each-way at 11/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Thebesthasyetocome
22/1The steamer of the field drifting into market attention at 22/1; Keatley yard at 20% strike rate and a two-from-two record make this the stand-out value dissent at a price.
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Winner called 1/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Libertango
15/8Top of the deterministic model at 6.54, form reads 112 at this distance, hot Boughey yard at 21%, Loughnane 19% strike rate, distance-fit confirmed D:+. Every pillar aligns.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Wild Blossom
7/1Burke at 27% over the fortnight, speed section second only to Libertango in the model at 6.22, and her 101 form includes a win at 5/4F — she goes close at a bigger price.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Moonrise
11/1Form of 121 with D:+ at York distance, Murphy's 21% career rate adds class; model has her third at 6.14 and the each-way terms at 11/1 make her the each-way play.
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4Predicted 4th
Shimmering Sun
22/1Eustace's yard is blazing at 29%, Marquand books a 172 form horse with a closing second last time at 2/1 — model fourth at 5.87, dismissed by the market, worth the dissent.
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