← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Hamilton Park "Hands And Heels" Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)
Mr Fox’s call
Ukiyo
MEDIUM Advised 10/3 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Ukiyo (SR 65, 10/3) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a very manageable 9-2, giving it a meaningful weight advantage over Tanjen and Hurt You Never on identical SR. The market move of 32% inward is the strongest steaming signal in the field and in a small Class 6 apprentice heat, that degree of support deserves serious weight. GoingFit:~ indicates moderate comfort on good-to-soft rather than a negative, and ClassMv:= means connections know exactly what they are entering. The only concern is jockey Geerdharry's 2% career strike rate, but the strength of the market move suggests the trainer is confident regardless. Each-way alternative: Hurt You Never. Main danger: Hurt You Never — Course:W4P4 is an exceptional course record for Hamilton that outweighs the GoingFit:- concern, MarkMv:-15 means it is running off a significantly dropped mark, and at 7/2 the market has not fully punished the drift as much as the 20% out movement might suggest.
Full result
Winner: Tanjen (IRE) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Tanjen Fox #4 4/1
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2
Never Dark Fox #3 5/1
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3
Summerstorms Dream 9/1
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4
South Shore Island 15/2
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5
Cotai Starlight 9/1
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6
Ukiyo Fox #1 3/1
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7
Hurt You Never Fox #2 7/2
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Hvar -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4