← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Darley Irish EBF Hurry Harriet Stakes (Listed)
Mr Fox’s call
Lemsairbat
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Lemsairbat (SR 105, 9/4) is the highest-rated runner in the field and has been steamed dramatically from opening — a 27% market contraction is the strongest money signal in the race. As JP O'Brien's yard flag-bearer (stablemate Star Performer has drifted 36%), DBM takes the mount, a strong booking at a 15% strike-rate stable. The SR-105 edges Skydance (SR 112 on mark, but drifted 8%) in form quality when weighted against the market move, and the 5-2-5-2-3 form line shows consistent placing at this level. Weight parity at 9-9 versus the 3yo fillies on 9-1 means Lemsairbat receives no age allowance penalty and starts on level terms in that regard against older rivals. Each-way alternative: Skydance. Main danger: Skydance — Skydance (SR 112, 9/4) is the joint-shortest price and has the best SR in the field with a recent winning run (form 265-13 — won last time), and while an 8% drift is a mild concern, WJ Lee's booking at 14% career strike rate suggests connections remain confident.
Full result
Winner: Star Performer (IRE) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Star Performer 11/2
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2
Hollys Graces 40/1
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3
Classiest 11/1
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4
Subsonic 22/1
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5
Skydance Fox #2 2/1
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6
Lemsairbat Fox #1 9/4
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7
Minerva Fox #3 15/2
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—
Moonlit Sun Fox #4 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Lemsairbat 9/4 6TH
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2
Skydance 9/4 5TH
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3
Minerva 11/2 7TH
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4
Moonlit Sun 15/2